Marvin Mims Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Mims didn’t find enough playing time as a rookie last year to be a fantasy factor. But he flashed big-play ability in limited action and had a strong prospect profile coming into the league.

Jerry Jeudy’s departure gives Mims an opportunity to earn a much bigger role in 2024. Highlight his name as a later-round sleeper in fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mims caught 22 passes for 317 yards and one TD in 16 games as a rookie last year.
• He ranked 113th among WRs in PPR points per game and 107th in non-PPR.
• 49% of Mims’ receiving yards came in Weeks 2 and 3.
  • He finished those weeks WR17 and WR41 in PPR points.
  • He didn’t finish better than WR46 in any other week and was WR70 or worse 12 times.
• Mims was a part-time player for the majority of the season. He played just 38% of Denver’s offensive snaps across his 16 games and only reached a 50% snap rate twice (69% in Week 10 and 56% in Week 11).
• Mims was deployed primarily as a deep threat.
  • His 15.2-yard average target depth ranked 11th among 112 qualifying WRs.
  • 34% of his targets came 20+ yards downfield – the 10th highest rate among 119 qualifiers.
  • Mims caught five of those 11 deep targets for 246 yards and one TD. His 97.3 Pro Football Focus deep receiving grade ranked 30th among 119 qualifying WRs.
• Mims’ 11.4 yards per target ranked fifth among 112 WRs with 30+ targets last year.
• But his 1.54 yards per route – a better measure of WR play – ranked just 53rd.
• Mims averaged just 0.23 yards per route in those two games in which he topped a 50% snap rate.
• Mims made bigger contributions last year in the return game. He averaged 16.4 yards on kick returns and a huge 26.5 yards on punt returns, fueled by a 99-yard punt-return TD in Week 3. He was selected to the Pro Bowl as a returner.
• The Broncos made Mims the 63rd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. He led Oklahoma in receiving yards all three years on campus, leaving school with a huge 19.5 yards-per-catch average. Then he blazed a 4.38-second 40 time at the Combine.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Broncos traded WR Jerry Jeudy to the Browns this offseason. He’s ranked second on the team in targets each of the past two seasons, with shares of 17.5% and 17.0%.
• Denver returns WRs Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Brandon Johnson, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey and added WRs Troy Franklin and Josh Reynolds.
• HC Sean Payton said in March that he anticipates a bigger role for Mims this season.
  • "I really think the only thing that really stopped his progress as a receiver was us and trying to find roles,” Payton said. “The key is for us, and I say us as coaches in game planning, is evolving ... We'll see [Mims' role] expand.''
• The 2023 Broncos ranked 24th or lower in offensive plays, pass rate, and pass attempts. With the same coaching staff and rookie QB Bo Nix likely at the controls, this projects as a conservative, run-leaning offense again this season.
• Nix is coming off two strong seasons at Oregon. But he struggled at Auburn prior to that and was generally viewed as a second-round prospect.
• Nix is unlikely to be a significant upgrade – and might be a downgrade – on Russell Wilson, who ranked a respectable 19th in Pro Football Focus passing grade last year.
• Nix rarely threw deep at Oregon, registering the 13th lowest rate of passes 20+ yards downfield last year. But he was effective on deep balls, ranking sixth in completion rate, 14th in passer rating, and fifth in PFF passing grade on throws of 20+ yards.