Khalil Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Herbert’s OK to draft at a handcuff level, especially if he works ahead of Roschon Johnson this summer. Barring clarity in roles between them, though, he doesn’t look like a 2024 difference-maker. This is, at least, the final year on Herbert’s rookie contract. That makes him a decent cheap dynasty stash in case he lands in a better situation as an unrestricted free agent.

What We Learned Last Year

• Herbert remained an efficient performer in his third season.
  • He tied for 15th in yards after contact per attempt among 59 RBs with 70+ carries, according to Pro Football Focus.
  • Herbert ranked 10th among that group in elusive rating.
  • And he finished 18th among 49 qualifiers in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt.
  • He fared even better in those categories in 2022:
    • Fourth in YAC per attempt
    • T-12th in elusive rating (but with a better number)
    • First in RYOE per attempt
• Herbert also beat rookie teammate Roschon Johnson last season in yards per carry (4.6 to 4.3) and yards per catch (6.7 to 6.1) – as well as both rushing and receiving success rate.
• But Herbert trailed Johnson in targets and catches.
• He also ranked just fourth among Bears in carries from inside the 10-yard line and fifth in carries inside the 5. Herbert got just one rush from inside the 5, while watching …
  • D’Onta Foreman get six
  • QB Justin Fields get five
  • Johnson get five
  • QB Tyson Bagent get three
• Herbert finished the year with the team lead in carries, despite playing in just 12 games. But he trailed Foreman in carries per game: 12.1 to 11.0.

What to Expect in 2024

• Herbert’s performance through three NFL seasons would look more promising if we didn’t keep getting signals from his coaches that they don’t want to give him more work.
• Last year found him opening the season as the top back, increase his carries per game for the second straight year and post a career high in receptions per game. But then the Bears paid up for D’Andre Swift in free agency.
• That leaves Herbert battling Roschon Johnson for the No. 2 role. His efficiency to date makes Herbert look like the better bet for production behind Swift. But their usage patterns last year helps Johnson more.
• Ultimately, he’s probably looking at limited touches behind Swift and alongside a significantly upgraded pass offense. And even if Swift goes down, we’re probably looking at some sort of time share.