Jonathon Brooks - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

The Panthers invested heavily in Brooks by drafting him at 46th overall with their limited draft capital.

Typically, he would be the clear top RB on the team and in line for a ton of touches this season. But Brooks' ACL tear this past November adds some uncertainty to his 2024 outlook.

If he can recover quickly, Brooks should easily surpass Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders, and his talent gives him top-12 upside in the Rachaad White role in this offense.

We are higher on Brooks than his RB3 ADP due to his high ceiling this season.

What We Learned Last Year

• Brooks was selected by the Panthers with the 46th overall pick in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
• He spent three seasons in college at Texas.
• In 2021 and 2022, he was the third-string RB backing up Roschon Johnson and Bijan Robinson.
• In 2023, he had the best year of his career:
  • 187 carries
  • 1,139 yards
  • 6.09 yards per carry
  • 10 TDs
• Brooks recorded the 29th most rushing yards in the FBS, despite missing four games.
• Brooks is also a capable receiver. He graded 19th among RBs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade while having 25 receptions for 286 yards and a TD.
• Brooks suffered an ACL tear against TCU on November 11, 2023.
• At the NFL Combine, Brooks measured in at 6’0 and 216 pounds.
• He did not work out before the draft due to his injury.

What to Expect in 2024

• Brooks will play under HC Dave Canales, who will be calling plays for the Panthers offense.
  • Canales was the OC for the Buccaneers last season.
  • Under Canales, the Buccaneers ranked 23rd in the NFL with 439 rushes.
  • Rachaad White ranked ninth among RBs in expected PPR points per game and 10th in actual PPR points per game as Canales’ feature back.
• The Panthers are expected to take a step forward this year after only winning two games last season. They are fourth in the NFC South and 31st in the league with a 5.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Panthers have the worst odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl at +25000 at most sportsbooks.
• Brooks enters his first season at 21 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with Brooks’ draft capital and profile produces 80% of his peak value at age-21.