Jahan Dotson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Dotson burned fantasy owners in 2023, but it would be wrong to completely ignore him this summer.

He’s a 24-year-old former Round 1 pick. And he’s positioned to retain a starting spot after the Commanders WR corps – at least on paper – took a step back.

Questions remain about rookie QB Jayden Daniels and new HC Kliff Kingsbury. Still, at the cost of a late-round pick, Dotson’s worth the minimal investment.

What We Learned Last Year

• Doston played for new Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy.
  • His offense allowed Sam Howell to lead the NFL in pass attempts.
  • Washington finished first in pass rate; third in pass rate over expected.
• Still, fed 83 targets, Dotson’s play regressed following a promising rookie year (2022 produced 35-523-7 in 12 games.)
  • Recall that he entered the league as the 16th overall pick.
• Last year, among 50 WRs with 80+ targets, Dotson ranked 37th in catch rate, 44th in yards per catch, 49th in yards after catch per reception, and 49th in yards per route run.
• He managed just 0.13 targets per route run.
• His target share? Third on the team at 13.8%.
• Dotson never became a reliable fantasy play in lineup-setting formats. He finished as a top-36 WR four times ... and outside the top 50 ten times.
  • He was held off the stat sheet in Week 6 (at Atlanta), Week 10 (at Seattle) and Week 17 (vs. San Francisco).
  • Dotson topped 50 yards on only three occasions.
• QB play certainly wasn’t an ally. Only 76.3% of Dotson's targets were charted as catchable -- 53rd in a 72 WR sample.

What to Expect in 2024

• Washington lost Curtis Samuel to free agency and replaced him with late-Round 3 rookie Luke McCaffrey.
  • McCaffrey is a convered QB who’s on the raw side. Most analysts expected him to be a Round 5-6 pick.
  • McCaffrey mostly played in the slot in college (71%). Dotson has split his time out wide (64%) and in the slot.
  • Samuel’s absence removes 91 targets from the ‘23 offense.
  • Washington added TEs Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Sinnott. Their presence shouldn’t impact Dotson’s role.
• QB Jayden Daniels arrives as the second overall pick.
  • He’ll turn 24 in December and brings plenty of experience (55 starts).
  • He’s a top-tier athlete with the ability to extend plays – a theoretical benefit for Dotson’s downfield upside.
  • Note: only 12.7% of Dotson’s 2023 targets came on deep balls (20+ air yards).
• OC Kliff Kingsburry enters year one in Washington.
  • His Arizona offenses ranked 18th, 15th, 18th, and 4th in pass attempts.
  • Kingsburry’s units ranked 1st, 6th, 8th, and 6th in total WR target share.