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Geno Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGeno Smith’s Basic Stats

Geno Smith
ADP: N/A
Bye: 10
Experience: 11
Age: 34.1
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 221
40 Time: 4.59

Burst Score (Rank): 120.60 (86%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 55.00 (50%)

Geno Smith's Weekly Outlook

Week 11 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
241.8 1.5 0.9 18 16.8
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
264.3 1.8 0.8 13.6 18.3

Geno Smith's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#9 Quarterback

302.8 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 395.8/591.3 4426.6 28.49 12.9 56.3 237.8 3.4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGeno Smith's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Smith is coming off a QB24 finish in fantasy points per game last season. He played well, though, earning a career-high and ranking 12th in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Smith ranked seventh in fantasy points back in 2022 and gets his top three WRs back this year in D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba this year. But Smith will be operating a new offense under first-time NFL OC Ryan Grubb.

There’s a relatively wide range of outcomes here, but Smith’s ADP is sitting in low-end QB2 territory. His fantasy ceiling extends well above that price tag.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Smith finished 24th among QBs in fantasy points per game last year.
  • That was way down from his QB7 finish in 2022.
  • What changed? Here’s where Smith went in key metrics from 2022 to 2023:
    • 33.6 pass attempts per game to 33.3
    • 69.8% completion rate to 64.7%
    • 7.5 yards per pass attempt to 7.3
    • 251.9 pass yards per game to 241.6
    • 1.8 pass TDs per game to 1.3
    • 5.2% pass TD rate to 4.0%
  • There was no noticeable dropoff in Smith’s play. In fact, he earned a career-high 82.1 Pro Football Focus passing grade. That ranked 12th among 33 qualifying QBs.
  • Smith ranked 19th among those 33 qualifiers in completion rate and 11th in yards per attempt.
  • He ranked seventh in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Completion Rate Over Expected.
  • Smith missed Weeks 14 and 15 with a groin injury.
  • He finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in just five of his 15 outings. That included a pair of top-5 finishes. But Smith ranked QB20 or worse six times.
  • On top of the dip in passing production, Smith also went from 21.5 rushing yards per game in 2022 to just 10.3 last year.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Seahawks traded for QB Sam Howell in mid-March. He’s coming off an up-and-down season in Washington and shouldn’t be a threat for the starting job as long as Smith plays as well as he has the past two seasons.
  • Smith will be playing for a brand new coaching staff this year led by HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb.
  • This will be Grubb’s first NFL coaching job.
    • He’s been coaching in various offensive roles for various schools since 2003.
    • Grubb most recently served as the University of Washington’s OC. Those Huskies teams both ranked top 13 in the nation in total yards and points per game.
    • They were especially lethal through the air, ranking first and then second in passing yards per game. Washington ranked top five in pass attempts both years.
  • Grubb said in early June that his Seahawks offense might not be as pass-heavy.
    • “So when you talk about some of the run-pass balance, you have backs like (Kenneth Walker III) and Zach (Charbonnet), you are pretty excited about your ability to run the ball. So I think for us we are trying to meld some things together with some things we’ve done in the past, whether it’s a long time ago or even just the last few years and get the guys to understand that we want to be a physically dominant team and at the same time have that same explosive, confusing element that people are used to.”
  • Grubb loved throwing deep at Washington. QB Michael Penix ranked fourth in passes of 20+ yards in 2022 and then led the country in 2023.
  • That’ll be a change for Smith, who’s ranked near the middle of the league in both total pass attempts of 20+ yards and percentage of passes to travel 20+ yards the last two years.
    • He’s been very good throwing deep, though. Smith led 35 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus’ deep passing grade in 2022 and ranked ninth among 38 qualifiers last year.
  • The Seahawks return their top six targets from last year.
    • WR Tyler Lockett
    • WR D.K. Metcalf
    • WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    • TE Noah Fant
    • RB Ken Walker
    • RB Zach Charbonnet
  • 31-year-old Lockett is in decline but still a solid player. Smith-Njigba should be ascending in year 2. This remains a strong pass-catching corps.
  • The 2023 Seahawks ranked:
    • 28th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade
    • 25th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate
  • Seattle might have as many as four new starters on the offensive line this season: OT George Fant, Gs Laken Tomlinson and McClendon Curtis, and rookie C Olu Oluwatimi. 2022 first-round LT Charles Cross returns for his third season.

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D.K. Metcalf, WR SEA

9:07pm EDT 11/1/24

D.K. Metcalf Out For Week 9

Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf (knee) is out for Sunday’s game vs. the Rams. There was optimism early in the week that Metcalf would be back for this one, but he seemingly didn’t progress as hoped over the past few days. He gets a Week 10 bye to heal up. Metcalf will again be replaced by WR Jake Bobo this weekend. He’s only an option as a cheap flier in DFS tournaments. WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett gain target upside with Metcalf sidelined.

View all D.K. Metcalf Shark Bites »

Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf is considered "week to week" with a Grade 1 MCL sprain suffered in the Week 7 win over the Falcons, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Seattle gets the Bills and Rams the next two weeks before a Week 10 bye, so it's possible we don't see Metcalf again until Week 11.

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QB Geno Smith had a good outing on Sunday in the Seahawks win. He completed 18-of-28 passes for 207 yards and 2 TDs. He also ran for 15 yards.

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Seahawks QB Geno Smith posted another strong fantasy line in Monday night's loss to the Lions. Even with just 1 TD pass, he finished QB5 for the week (depending on your scoring) by throwing for 395 yards on 38-of-56 passing and rushing for 38 yards. Smith now sits sixth among QBs in fantasy points through four weeks.

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Seahawks QB Geno Smith and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba have "obvious chemistry," The Athletic's Michael-Shawn Dugar writes. "Smith-Njigba isn’t a speedster; he wins with deception and quickness in and out of his routes. Maximizing his production requires timing and an understanding of his tempo. Smith has a good feel for that."

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Geno Smith, QB SEA
Dynasty MVP 6.5
Position Rank #22 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
724
1,134
1,586
Dynasty Write-up
After a breakout 2022, Smith's numbers predictably regressed in 2023. He lost his HC/OC in the offseason, but Seattle remains fully stocked at pass-catcher. Smith will turn 34 in October.
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