Cole Kmet - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Kmet’s a fine player but not enough of a force to overcome this year’s dramatic shift in target challenges. He looks like a low-ceiling TE2.

What We Learned Last Year

• Before the season started, we learned that the Bears really like Kmet. They signed him to a four-year, $50 million extension last July – with nearly half of that guaranteed.
• During the season, Kmet ranked second on the team in target share for the second straight year. That share actually increased over his 2022 number – despite D.J. Moore’s arrival – and ranked fifth among TEs.
  • Only T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews beat Kmet. He ranked seventh at the position in 2022; 11th in 2021.
• Kmet set career highs in the following categories:
  • Receptions per game (4.3)
  • Yards per game (42.3)
  • Yards per target (8.0)
  • Catch rate (81.1%)
  • Receiving success rate (62.2%)
  • Yards per route (1.69)
• Kmet fared even better in backup QB Tyson Bagent’s starts. Despite garnering zero targets in the first, Kmet still averaged 5.3 receptions, 44.8 yards and 0.5 TDs over that span. That suggests upside to Justin Fields not being his QB.

What to Expect in 2024

• Chicago’s offense will look a lot different this season.
  • The Bears replaced OC Luke Getsy with Shane Waldron.
  • They drafted QB Caleb Williams first overall to replace Fields.
  • They added WRs Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.
  • They signed D’Andre Swift to lead the backfield.
  • And they gave TE Gerald Everett $12 million on a two-year deal, with half of that guaranteed.
• Waldron was the TEs coach for the Rams when they drafted Everett in 2017. He became Seattle’s OC in 2021, and the Seahawks signed Everett.
  • That now makes three straight teams that have added Everett in Waldron’s first season on staff.
  • Everett ranked third for those Seahawks in targets, but well behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. That team also had Will Dissly as its next-best TE.
• Waldron’s three Seattle offenses ranked tied for 20th, third, and 21st in TE receptions.
  • His past two elected to spread targets among three TEs rather than feature former first-round pick Noah Fant. He went from 66, 93, and 90 targets over three Denver seasons to 63 and then 43 the past two years.
• Even if Kmet remains well ahead of Everett, the additions at WR and RB figure to challenge his target share – which has been a key driver for Kmet’s fantasy production to date.
• The Bears should, at least, pass quite a bit more than last year. The Seahawks ranked 10th in the league in neutral-situation pass rate over Waldron’s three seasons as OC. Last year’s Bears finished 27th.