Chris Olave - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Olave remains easily the Saints’ best WR.

He improved in nearly every metric from Year 1 to Year 2, and the upward trajectory should continue this season

Though Derek Carr is still the QB, Olave will get the targets to be an every-week starter and a WR1, which is where he sits in our rankings.

What We Learned Last Year

• Olave posted a season-long stat line of 87 catches for 1,123 yards and five TDs in 16 games.
• His per-game averages were slightly improved from his rookie season (2022):
  • 8.63 targets (up from 7.93)
  • 5.44 receptions (up from 4.80)
  • 70.2 yards (up from 69.5)
  • 12.9 yards per catch (down from 14.5)
  • 0.31 TDs (up from 0.27)
• Olave ranked as the PPR WR16 in total fantasy points and WR20 in points per game.
• He missed one game last year (Week 15) with a right ankle injury. It was the third game he’s missed in two years.
• He had four top-12 finishes. He also had four WR37 or worse finishes.
• Olave’s target share stayed consistent from 25.6% in 2022 (21st among WRs) to 25.8% (16th among WRs).
• Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Olave ranked 17th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 18th in yards per route run (2.07).
• Among those same 89 WRs, Olave ranked 18th in average targeted air yards (13.3) and 12th in percentage of team air yards (37.15%).

What to Expect in 2024

• Olave enters his third season with the Saints under HC Dennis Allen.
• New OC Klint Kubiak spent last year as the 49ers' passing-game coordinator
  • Last season the 49ers threw the fewest passes in the NFL at 491.
  • In Kubiak’s last OC stint for the Vikings in 2021, the team finished 12th in the league in pass attempts (604).
• The Saints are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Saints have the 25th-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +8000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
• Olave enters his third season at 24 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Olave’s career produces at 95% of his peak value at age 24.