Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Ridley got a big four-year, $92 million deal from the Titans in free agency, which gives him a shot to emerge as the team’s top target.

But DeAndre Hopkins out-performed him in most key metrics last season. And QB play remains a concern in Tennessee.

That leaves Ridley as just a WR3 target in fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Ridley was traded to the Jaguars after not playing in 2022 due to violating the league’s gambling policy.
• His per-game numbers were a slight step below his career averages:
  • 8.00 targets (7.82)
  • 4.47 receptions (4.91)
  • 59.8 yards (66.0)
  • 13.4 yards per catch (13.5)
  • 0.47 TDs (0.55)
• Ridley ranked as the PPR WR19 in total fantasy points and WR27 in points per game.
• Last year, he did not miss a game. This was his first full season since his rookie year in 2018.
• Ridley had five top-12 finishes. He also had nine WR37 or worse finishes.
• His target share (22.5%) ranked 32nd among WRs.
• Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, Ridley ranked:
  • 45th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 50th in yards per route run (1.57)
  • 22nd in average target depth (13.9).

What to Expect in 2024

• Ridley signed with the Titans for a four-year deal worth $92 million with $50 million guaranteed. His $23 million per year ranks tied for 14th among WRs.
• Ridley enters his first season on the Titans under HC and play caller Brian Callahan and OC Nick Holz.
• The Titans figure to throw it significantly more under the new coaching staff.
  • Four of Callahan’s five Bengals offenses ranked top-12 in pass rate, including a trio of top-6 finishes.
  • The Titans never finished higher than 24th in pass rate in six seasons under HC Mike Vrabel.
• The Titans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are fourth in highest win total in the AFC South at 6.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit tied for 27th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +15000 on most sportsbooks.
• Ridley enters his seventh season at 29 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Ridley’s career and profile will produce between 90-96% of his peak value at age-29.
• DeAndre Hopkins beat Ridley last year in both yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.