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Nico Collins - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsNico Collins’s Basic Stats

Nico Collins
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 3
Age: 25.8
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 222
40 Time: 4.50
Speed Score: 109.20

SPARQx (Rank): 108.40 (64%)
Burst Score (Rank): 126.30 (75%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.11 (67%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.33 (94%)

Nico Collins's Weekly Outlook

Week 16 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.9 84.5 0.49 11.5
Weekly Writeup
The Chiefs supply a tough matchup for Collins, sitting second-toughest in adjusted fantasy points allowed to outside WRs. Still, his role makes him a no-doubt fantasy starter. In four games since returning from injury, the 25-year-old is averaging nearly 17 fantasy points per outing.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
6.3 91.3 0.6 12.4

Nico Collins's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#20 Wide Receiver

208.7 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 70.4 1004.7 6.3 2.4 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsNico Collins's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Collins earned a big contract extension this offseason and likely stays as C.J. Stroud’s top WR even after the team traded for Stefon Diggs.

His ideal fit for OC Bobby Slowik’s offense allowed Collins to routinely get open and put up numerous WR1 games last year.

Though his target share may decrease, the passing game efficiency should keep Collins as a borderline WR1 again this season.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Collins’ per-game averages were all the best of his career:
    • 7.27 targets
    • 5.33 receptions
    • 86.5 yards
    • 16.2 yards per catch
    • 0.53 TDs
  • He ranked as the PPR WR18 in total fantasy points (225.9) and WR18 in points per game (9.7).
  • He missed two games last year (Week 10 & Week 15) due to a calf injury.
  • He had five top-12 finishes. He also had four WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Collins’ target share improved from 19.1% in 2022 (45th best among WRs) to 21.9% (34th best among WRs).
  • Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, Collins ranked
    • 7th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 2nd in yards per route run (3.10)
    • 46th in average target depth (11.5)
  • Among those same 92 WRs, Collins was 27th in average separation yards (3.0), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Collins signed a three-year, $72.75 million contract to stay with the Texans with $52 million guaranteed. His $24.25 million per year ranks eighth among WRs.
  • QB C.J. Stroud enters his second season under HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik.
  • The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
  • Collins enters his eighth season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Collins’ career will produce at peak value at age 25.
  • He’ll face tougher target competition this year with Stefon Diggs joining Tank Dell in the WR corps. But Collins notably beat Diggs and Dell last year in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade.

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C.J. Stroud, QB HOU

5:58pm EST 12/15/24

C.J. Stroud Underwhelming in Win

Texans QB C.J. Stroud managed only 131 yards in Sunday's win over Miami. He hit two TDs for only the fifth time this season.

View Full Story »

Texans WR Nico Collins played his first game in over six weeks, catching four passes 54 yards on seven targets. He did have a TD called back due to a penalty. Collins has retained his athleticism, but struggled for most of the night against Trevon Diggs.

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Texans WR Nico Collins (hamstring) is not listed on the final Week 11 injury report. He practiced all week, including full workouts on Friday and Saturday, and will play against the Cowboys on Monday night. The Texans were cautious bringing Collins back from this Week 5 hamstring injury, so we're expecting him to be ready for a full slate of snaps in this one. That lands Collins inside the top five of our Week 11 WR Rankings.

View all Nico Collins Shark Bites »

Texans WR Nico Collins (hamstring) was limited in Thursday's practice. HC Demeco Ryans was talking earlier this week like Collins would be back for Monday night's game vs. the Cowboys. That's what we're projecting, but we'll keep you updated on Collins' status over the next few days.

View all Nico Collins Shark Bites »

Texans WR Nico Collins (hamstring) is expected to practice all week and play against the Cowboys on Monday night, according to insider Aaron Wilson. "He's 100 percent ready to go," a source told Wilson. Collins was seemingly close to playing against the Lions this past week, but the Texans played it safe with his return. We'll look for further updates on his status, but we're tentatively expecting Collins to play something close to his usual role against the Cowboys. He sits high in the Week 11 WR Rankings.

View all Nico Collins Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Nico Collins, WR HOU
Dynasty MVP 76
Position Rank #7 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
744
1,206
2,229
Dynasty Write-up
Collins really took off in 2023 alongside C.J. Stroud (80-1,297-8). 2024 was going to turn up a contract year, but Collins inked a three-year extension in May. Now we'll see how targets are divided up following the arrival of Stefon Diggs.
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