Nathaniel Dell - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Dell’s connection with C.J. Stroud was apparent in his rookie season. He was on pace to be a top-15 WR until a broken fibula ended his season prematurely.

The Texans have a bevy of weapons in Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, and Stefon Diggs, so the ball may get spread around more than last season.

Despite this, Dell and Stroud’s rapport cannot be denied. Expect Dell to still deliver low-end WR2/high-end WR3 numbers.

What We Learned Last Year

• Dell’s per-game averages as a rookie:
  • 6.82 targets
  • 4.27 receptions
  • 64.5 yards
  • 15.1 yards per catch
  • 0.64 TDs
• He ranked as the PPR WR38 in total fantasy points (165.0) and WR16 in points per game (9.8).
• He missed one game (Week 6) due to concussion and then suffered a season-ending broken fibula in Week 13.
• Out of his 11 games played, Dell had four top-12 finishes. He also had five WR37 or worse finishes.
• Dell’s target share was 21.8% (35th best among WRs).
• Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, Dell ranked
  • 15th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 16th in yards per route run (2.22)
  • 15th in average target depth (14.4).
• Among those same 92 WRs, Dell was 30th in average separation yards (2.9), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

• Dell enters his second season under HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik.
• He is recovering from an April gunshot wound and is expected to make a full recovery.
• The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
• Dell enters his second season at 24 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Dell’s career and profile will produce at 94-95% of peak value at age-24.
• He’ll face tougher target competition this year with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. But Dell notably beat Diggs last year in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade.