Josh Jacobs - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

We know what Jacobs can do. We know that Green Bay has been a good situation for RBs. What we don’t know is exactly how the Packers will split work among RBs and how well Jacobs can bounce back from a rough 2023. An early RB12 ADP presents some risk, but that’s limited a bit by the market pushing all RBs later in drafts. Jacobs is ultimately an OK bet at cost – not a specific draft target.

What We Learned Last Year

• Last season was not kind to Jacobs after his huge 2022.
  • He posted a career-low 3.5 yards per carry, fresh off a career-high 4.9.
  • Jacobs did tally his second-most yards per catch but saw his receptions per game decline for the second straight season.
  • His 2.35 yards after contact per carry were easily the fewest of his career, according to Pro Football Focus. That mark tied for 53rd among 59 RBs with 70+ carries.
  • Jacobs forced missed tackles at a drastically lower rate.
  • His minus-0.37 rush yards over expected per attempt ranked ninth-worst among 49 qualifiers, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The year before found him 11th-best in that category.
• The offense didn’t help. Las Vegas ranked just 27th in total DVOA.
• Jacobs lost the final four games of the season to a quad injury.
  • It marked his second straight season with a quad issue, though Jacobs didn’t miss any games in 2022.
  • He also appeared as questionable on the injury report that season with hip and calf issues at other times.
• The Raiders let Jacobs hit the open market after franchise-tagging him for 2023 and watched him walk ahead of his age-26 season.

What to Expect in 2024

• Jacobs goes from last year’s No. 27 offense in DVOA to the No. 6 unit. That should help the lead RB, and it’s pretty clear that’s what Green Bay wants him to be.
• The Packers gave him $48 million on a four-year contract, with $12.5 million of that guaranteed. The deal gives the team an out after this year if things aren’t working, but it also gives Jacobs the fifth-highest annual average of any RB in the league.
• HC Matt LaFleur has given us a few interesting tidbits on Jacobs’ arrival, though, that need to factor into expectations …
  • First, it certainly doesn’t sound like LaFleur drove the Jacobs acquisition, which came almost immediately after the release of Aaron Jones: “It kind of caught me off-guard, to be honest. Certainly I knew there was some other things in play with Aaron Jones. I didn’t quite know how everything was going to go. It just happened really fast on that Monday. [Management] came down when they were allowed to start to talk to those guys. … I don’t know all the details to that. I’m not involved in those types of conversations.”
  • LaFleur has complimented Jacobs’ all-around skill set: “I just think when you look at his body of work, his play style, his running style, he’ll excel (in all situations). There are some things we can do in the pass game as well, get him out of the backfield.”
    • And later: “I think he is very capable of being a high-volume feature back, where he’s getting a bulk of the carries, but we’ll see how it plays out.”
  • But the coach has also told us he prefers not to overload a single player: “Philosophically, no matter who the runner is, typically, we like to platoon those guys, whether it’s two guys or three guys. I just think it allows the running backs to stay fresh throughout the duration of the season. … Then, when it gets down to the end of it, you’ve got to roll with whoever you feel gives you the best opportunity to win games.”
• Over his five seasons with LaFleur (ages 25-29), here were Jones’ touch-per-game averages:
  • 2019: 17.9
  • 2020: 17.8
  • 2021: 14.9
  • 2022: 16.0
  • 2023: 15.6
• Last year’s 15.6 touches per game tied Jones for 25th in the league among RBs. Injury affected that some, but we also saw AJ Dillon’s impact decrease amid poor performance.
  • His high of 17.9 touches per game would have ranked 13th among RBs last season.
• In addition to bringing in Jacobs, the Packers drafted RB MarShawn Lloyd in Round 3. That made him the fourth RB off the board, enough draft capital to indicate the Packers like him.
  • Here’s what OC Adam Stenavich said in early May: “I would like to get him out there as much as possible. … It’ll be nice to get him the ball in space and just see what he can do. I think he’s gonna add a good explosive element to the offense, for sure.”
  • LaFleur has also called Lloyd a “matchup nightmare.”
• The team also brought back Dillon. The Packers did so for the minimum amount, which obviously doesn’t guarantee any significant work. But LaFleur had interesting things to say after the re-signing:
  • “AJ is another guy that I think can be a high-volume guy. Unfortunately, this year, he battled through a lot of (injury) stuff throughout the course of the season, but I thought just from the things he was able to bring from a pass-protection standpoint this year, this was his best year at pass pro. I think there’s some versatility we can start to use with him moving forward, and start to use him more as a movable piece, not just a tailback.”
• That makes three RBs with pass-game potential and a coach who says he prefers to use multiple backs. This looks like a fluid usage situation that we’ll have to watch for hints throughout summer – and likely continue to assess into the regular season.
• Of course, the biggest question for Jacobs might not be how the Packers use him. He needs to rebound from the 2023 downturn. If he can stay healthy, the situation should help.
  • Packers RBs ranked just 27th in PPR points last year but fared much better across LaFleur’s first four seasons:
    • 2019: sixth
    • 2020: seventh
    • 2021: 10th
    • 2022: eighth