D.K. Metcalf - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Metcalf lost target volume last year with the arrival of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But he remained an effective downfield and red-zone WR. He finished 23rd among WRs in PPR points per game.

New OC Ryan Grubb’s aggressive passing game should be a good fit for Metcalf. He’ll likely need to remain above average in terms of yards per target and TD rate to pay off a WR2 price tag. But we’re ok betting on that from the 26-year-old.

What We Learned Last Year

• Metcalf caught 66 balls for 1,114 yards and eight TDs in 16 games last year.
• He missed Week 7 with rib and hip injuries.
• He ranked 23rd among WRs in PPR points per game; 17th in non-PPR.
• 16.6% of Metcalf’s PPR points came in a huge 134-yard, three-TD outing in Week 13 vs. Dallas.
• That was one of Metcalf’s two top-12 scoring weeks last season. He finished as a top-24 WR in nine of 16 games and finished outside the top-36 five times.
• Metcalf’s 16.9 yards per catch was a career high.
• His 9.4 yards per target was the second-best mark of his career and ranked 20th among 80 qualifying WRs.
• Metcalf’s 2.04 yards per route was also the second-best mark of his career and ranked 22nd among those 80 WRs.
• His eight TDs tied for seventh among WRs.
• His 12.1% TD rate was well above the league-wide WR average but not far off his 11.4% TD rate over his first four NFL seasons.
• Metcalf tied for sixth among WRs last year with 9.0 expected TDs.
  • He tied for ninth at the position in red-zone targets and tied for fourth in end-zone targets.
• Metcalf’s 119 targets and 7.4 targets per game last year were his lowest marks since his 2019 rookie season.
• His target shares in games played by season:
  • 2019 - 19.6%
  • 2020 - 23.5%
  • 2021 - 26.4%
  • 2022 - 24.5%
  • 2023 - 21.4%

What to Expect in 2024

• The Seahawks return QB Geno Smith and last year’s top six targets:
  • Metcalf
  • WR Tyler Lockett
  • WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • TE Noah Fant
  • RB Ken Walker
  • RB Zach Charbonnet
• Seattle has a brand new coaching staff led by HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb.
• This will be Grubb’s first NFL coaching job.
  • He’s been coaching in various offensive roles for various schools since 2003.
  • Grubb most recently served as the University of Washington’s OC. Those Huskies teams both ranked top 13 in the nation in total yards and points per game.
  • They were especially lethal through the air, ranking first and then second in passing yards per game. Washington ranked top five in pass attempts both years.
• Grubb said in early June that his Seahawks offense might not be as pass-heavy.
  • “So when you talk about some of the run-pass balance, you have backs like (Kenneth Walker III) and Zach (Charbonnet), you are pretty excited about your ability to run the ball. So I think for us we are trying to meld some things together with some things we’ve done in the past, whether it’s a long time ago or even just the last few years and get the guys to understand that we want to be a physically dominant team and at the same time have that same explosive, confusing element that people are used to.”
• Grubb loved throwing deep at Washington. QB Michael Penix ranked fourth in passes of 20+ yards in 2022 and then led the country in 2023.
• That fits well with Metcalf, who owns a career 12.6-yard average target depth and 14.3 yards-per-catch average. Those marks rank 15th and 19th among 86 qualifying WRs.
• It’s also worth noting that QB Geno Smith has been very good throwing deep over the last two years. He led 35 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus’ deep passing grade in 2022 and ranked ninth among 38 qualifiers last year.
• Metcalf will play the majority of the 2024 season at 26 years old. That tends to be peak age for WRs, according to our aging-curve research.