Chase Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Brown flashed late in his rookie season but is no lock for NFL success. It certainly helps his 2024 outlook that Cincinnati ditched Joe Mixon and that Zack Moss was the only addition. Moss looks like the better bet to lead the backfield early but is no lock. Best ball ADP currently has them further apart – Moss at RB26, Brown at RB36 – than our half-PPR rankings do (RB31 vs. RB38). That’s not enough to make either a specific draft target, though.

What We Learned Last Year

• Brown arrived in the fifth round of the 2023 draft, as the 10th RB off the board.
• He barely touched the ball through most of the season, totaling just two carries and three targets before Week 13.
• A hamstring injury didn’t help. He hurt it in practice coming out of the Week 7 bye and missed the next four games. Brown played no offensive snaps in his first game back.
• That changed in Week 13, when Brown suddenly took on a decent role.
  • He carried nine, eight, and seven times over the next three games and closed out the year with 25.8% carry share over the final six contests.
  • The rookie also drew 5.7% target share over that span.
  • He caught 14 of his 15 looks or the season, averaging 11.1 yards per reception.
• Brown flashed his speed with a couple of big plays: a 31-yard run against the Jaguars in Week 13 and a 54-yard catch-and-run TD the following week against the Colts.
• But he managed just 4.07 yards per rush for the year.
• Brown tied for 16th in yards after contact per attempt among 78 RBs with 40+ carries. But he checked in just 74th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Bengals dumped Joe Mixon in the offseason, trading him to Houston just after reports surfaced that they were about to release him.
• Cincinnati signed Zack Moss soon after that to a two-year, $8 million contract that includes $4.5 million for 2024. That’s still less than the roughly $5.8 million in cap space the team saved by moving Mixon.
• Moss has never led a backfield in carries per game. Last year marked the first time he led his backfield in targets.
  • Moss produced well by fantasy points when Jonathan Taylor missed time for the 2023 Colts. He performed better as a runner than receiver, though.
  • Moss’ PFF receiving grades have declined each season. He finished last year 67th among 70 RBs who drew 15+ targets. (Brown ranked fourth.)
  • Moss easily beat Brown in rushing grade, ranking 45th among the 78 RBs with 40+ carries.
• Brown says he took his first full NFL offseason seriously, including regular time with a trainer, a physical therapist, and a masseur: “I have a lot of people now around me to help keep my body in shape. I learned so much from last season and I'm taking that knowledge and doubling it in year two. It's investing in the craft, investing in my body. I think that's where people are wrong, a little bit (in the offseason). They focus a little too much on the extracurriculars, travel, all that.”
• Reports say the Bengals plan to split work between the backs. It’s likely that Cincinnati’s coaches – including a new OC (former QBs coach Dan Pitcher) – haven’t solidified that workload plan yet. It’s also likely that work share will continue to develop throughout the season.
• The Bengals’ offense should help RB scoring, as long as the QB stays healthy. Here’s where Cincinnati RBs have collectively ranked in PPR points since Zac Taylor arrived:
  • 2019: 29th
  • 2020: 20th
  • 2021: 13th
  • 2022: 6th
  • 2023: 22nd
  • Guess which two seasons found Joe Burrow staying healthy.
  • Cincinnati finished each of those years seventh in total points.