Caleb Williams - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

There’s plenty to like about this rookie QB – even right away. The biggest problem, however, is that the market already likes him very much. Williams already sits inside the top 12 QBs in best ball ADP. That lofty starting position adds risk to his fantasy outlook. If you take him, draft another QB as insurance.

What We Learned Last Year

• Williams isn’t bulletproof. He entered 2023 near-universally viewed as the safest QB prospect in at least several years. Then he endured his toughest college campaign.
• After ranking first nationally in passing TDs and third in passing yards in 2022, Williams shaved more than 20 off his yards per game and 0.7 percentage points off his TD rate.
• Losing WR Jordan Addison to the NFL obviously hurt.
• Beyond that, the USC O-line took some blame … but maybe too much.
  • The Trojans ranked 10th among FBS teams in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade in 2022.
  • They fell to just 20th in 2023 (among 133 teams).
• Williams actually struggled throwing under pressure in two of his three college seasons.
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• Overall, though, his passing performance didn’t tank. Check out Williams’ rates by college year:
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• His rushing performance slipped, however. On run plays alone (excluding yards lost on sacks, which official NCAA stats include in QB rushing) …
  • Williams went from 8.7 yards per carry to 6.6 and then 4.8, according to PFF.
  • He went from 4.95 yards after contact per attempt to 3.82 and then 1.97.
• Williams also set career highs in fumbles and turnover-worthy throw rate.
  • The fumbling was an issue throughout college.
  • The 2023 combo of turnover plays, however, might be another signal of Williams struggling when facing pressure.
• Williams, of course, still got drafted first overall. And that eventuality never appeared in doubt.

What to Expect in 2024

• Williams will obviously start for the Bears right away. That indicates the team not only views him as ready, but also an upgrade over Justin Fields.
• He’ll also find a seriously upgraded WR corps. Chicago traded for veteran Keenan Allen and then drafted Rome Odunze ninth overall. They join D.J. Moore after a season in which Moore set career highs in yards per game, catch rate, TDs, and receiving success rate (according to Pro Football Reference).
  • Chicago also added TE Gerald Everett to TE Cole Kmet in free agency and signed accomplished receiving RB D’Andre Swift.
• The Bears parted ways with OC Luke Getsy and replaced him with Shane Waldron.
  • Waldron spent the past three years as Seattle’s OC. The Seahawks ranked 10th in neutral-situation pass rate over that span; ninth in expected points added per dropback.
  • Seattle also ranked among the league’s top 8 in play pace (seconds per snap) each of those seasons, according to FTN.
• All of that bodes well for the situation that Williams steps into. And we’ve seen enough from Williams – as well as scouting evaluations of him – to know he has the skills to leverage the positive situation.
• We don’t know just how much to expect from his rushing.
  • Williams’ college career on whole looks positive in that area, but he’s coming off his roughest rushing performance.
  • The NFL will obviously present more pocket pressure and better coverage than Williams has faced before.
• The rookie needs to prove himself against pressure and limit turnovers to maximize his fantasy potential.