Bryce Young - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Young’s rookie season went as bad as it could possibly go.

Getting a new offensive-minded HC and a ton of investment in offensive personnel should help Young progress as a player, but his floor is still very low.

Young is being drafted as an appropriately priced QB3 who will need a lot to go right to be useful in 1-QB leagues.

What We Learned Last Year

• Young finished as the QB23 in total fantasy points (152.2) and QB29 in points per game (9.5).
• Young’s 2,783 passing yards ranked 20th among QBs. His 11 TDs ranked 25th.
• He missed one game (Week 3) due to an ankle sprain suffered in Week 2. Young did not appear on a final injury report for the rest of the season.
• He had two top-12 finishes. He also had four QB25 or worse finishes.
• Young’s per-game averages were underwhelming for a #1 overall pick:
  • 59.8% completion rate
  • 179.8 yards
  • 0.69 TDs
  • 0.63 INTs
  • 5.02 Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt
• HC Frank Reich was fired 11 games into the season. Young’s per-game production decreased after Reich left the team:
  • 55.9% completion rate
  • 166.7 yards
  • 0.33 TDs
  • 0.33 INTs
  • 5.35 Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt
• Among the 45 QBs with 135+ dropbacks, Young ranked:
  • 40th in PFF passing grade (52.6)
  • 29th in Big Time Throw percentage (3.2%)
  • 20th in Turnover Worthy Play percentage (3.3%)
  • 14th in Time to Throw (2.90 seconds)
  • 34th in Completion Percentage Above Expectation (-1.6%)
• Young played behind a poor O-line that ranked 27th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

• Young will play under HC Dave Canales, who will be calling plays for the Panthers' offense.
  • Canales was the OC for the Buccaneers last season.
  • Under Canales, the Buccaneers ranked 19th in the NFL with 568 passes.
• The Panthers invested in offensive weapons around Young:
  • WR Diontae Johnson (trade)
  • WR Xavier Legette (First Round)
  • RB Jonathon Brooks (Second Round)
  • TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (Fourth Round)
• The Panthers are expected to take a step forward this year after only winning two games last season. They are fourth in the NFC South and 31st in the league with a 5.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Panthers have the worst odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl at +25000 at most sportsbooks.
• Young enters his second season at 23 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Young’s career expectation produces 91% of his peak value at age-23.