The Chargers are trading WR Keenan Allen to the Bears for a fourth-round pick. That low price clearly comes because of Allen's contract. He carries a $34.7 million cap number, according to Over The Cap. Of course, we don't care about that for fantasy. Allen remained highly productive last season, finishing third among WRs in PPR points per game -- before missing the final four contests. He'll compete with D.J. Moore for the target lead in Chicago, where we're all awaiting confirmation that Caleb Williams will take over at QB. Whoever pilots the Bears offense will have a nice crew of pass-catchers, including new RB D'Andre Swift. Allen's ceiling comes down with the target competition and offense that's almost certain to be less pass-leaning than the Chargers of the past few years. Moore also takes hits to both his floor and ceiling. L.A., meanwhile, has to be a strong candidate to draft a WR fifth overall after dumping both Allen and Mike Williams. Josh Palmer is the top incumbent and looks like a better bet to seize opportunity than Quentin Johnston, who stunk as a 2023 rookie. We'll see how the situation sorts out, but losing Allen obviously hurts QB Justin Herbert. And it further fuels the expectation that the offense will lean much more toward the run under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. That obviously hurts Herbert's 2024 fantasy outlook. We still believe in the QB's talent, though. So it might be a good time to check Herbert's trade price in dynasty. The whole market has already been down on him this offseason. Check our dynasty rankings to see how these moves affect the players involved.
The Bills are signing WR Curtis Samuel to a three-year, $24 million deal, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The contract can be worth up to $30 million and includes $15 million in guarantees. It almost certainly locks Samuel in as the No. 2 WR alongside Stefon Diggs. It's worth noting, however, that he's getting significantly smaller annual averages than Gabe Davis (Jaguars) and Darnell Mooney (Falcons). Each of those free-agent WRs got deals with $13 million annual averages and more guaranteed money. For now, Samuel looks poised to battle TE Dalton Kincaid for the No. 2 spot in targets. Though we'll see whether Buffalo adds a WR early in the draft. Samuel presents intrigue in that his short-range game differs from the skill sets of Diggs and Davis, who spent the past four years in Buffalo. Samuel also played under Bills OC Joe Brady in Carolina in 2020, when he trailed Robbie Chosen and D.J. Moore by more than 20 targets apiece. Samuel did garner a career-high 41 carries that season, but the Panthers only got three games of RB Christian McCaffrey. For fantasy, Samuel looks interesting and obviously lands with an upside QB. But it's tough to like him as more than a high-WR4 to low-WR3. Samuel's short-range game makes him more attractive for lineup-setting leagues than best ball drafts. His arrival is also bad news for WR Khalil Shakir, who has spent 72% of his snaps in the slot over two seasons in Buffalo. Shakir can play outside as well. But you shouldn't consider him before the end of best ball drafts.
The Falcons acquired WR Rondale Moore from the Cardinals in exchange for QB Desmond Ridder. Moore is coming off a disappointing 2023 campaign, mustering just 40 catches for 352 yards and one TD over 17 games. He struggled with injuries over his first two NFL seasons but averaged 4.3 catches and 39 yards per game. Still only 23, Moore has a chance to rebound with the Falcons. But he was a low average-target-depth player in college and has remained so as a pro, so he needs significant volume to deliver in fantasy. That'll be tough to find in Atlanta alongside WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson. The Falcons also added WR Darnell Mooney to the pass-catching corps in free agency. It's a solid group for QB Kirk Cousins. Ridder, meanwhile, will be no threat to QB Kyler Murray in Arizona. Ridder is only worth rostering in deeper superflex dynasty leagues.
The Raiders signed TE Harrison Bryant to a one-year, $3.25 million deal with a max value of $4 million, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Bryant spent the past four seasons in Cleveland backing up TE Austin Hooper and then TE David Njoku. He'll play a similar secondary role in Las Vegas behind TE Michael Mayer. Bryant is off the redraft radar and is not a must-hold in dynasty.
The Colts signed QB Joe Flacco to a one-year deal worth "up to" $8.7 million, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Flacco gets $4.5 million guaranteed. The 2023 Comeback Player of the Year played well down the stretch for the Browns last season, averaging 321 passing yards on a 63% completion rate and 7.7 yards per attempt across six outings. He tossed 14 TDs but also 10 INTs. Flacco is quality insurance for the Colts behind QB Anthony Richardson, who made it through just two full games as a rookie last year. The signing makes guys like WR Michael Pittman and WR Josh Downs slightly safer fantasy bets.
The Titans surprisingly landed WR Calvin Ridley on Wednesday with a four-year, $92 million deal, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The pact includes $50 million guaranteed, adding Ridley to a WR corps that returns DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks. That's probably the strongest collection of WR talent the franchise has had since moving from Houston to Nashville. And the Ridley move just might be the strongest sign that HC Brian Callahan's Titans plan to throw the ball quite a bit more than the Mike Vrabel version. Even big-money RB Tony Pollard brings more receiving pedigree than rushing. How will all these WRs fit together by target share? Burks figures to sit a clear third, barring some gigantic steps for him this summer. Ridley hasn't been as much of a target earner as Hopkins throughout their respective careers. So we'll likely favor Hopkins between them. But expect both veteran wideouts to garner shares of 20+%. As for scheme fit, Burks enjoyed quite a bit of success from the slot at Arkansas before arriving as a first-round pick. This will be a very interesting offense heading into the 2024 season. And the biggest individual winner might be QB Will Levis. He's available late in best ball drafts (QB27 Underdog Fantasy ADP) but can at least offer high weekly ceilings. There might be top-16 season upside to Levis. Check our best ball rankings for everyone's updated numbers.
The Chargers are releasing WR Mike Williams, according to multiple reports. It makes sense. Dumping Williams saves the team $20 million against the 2024 salary cap, which they sat about $25 million over before this move. It doesn't help Williams that he's coming off a September ACL tear. That could delay his signing with a new team -- or perhaps lead the 29-year-old to take a one-year "prove it" deal somewhere. We'll be watching the next step for Williams, who has scored on 10% of his career receptions and regularly ranked among league leaders in end-zone targets. The Chargers now sport Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and Quentin Johnston as their top three WRs, in an offense that figures to run the ball quite a bit more than it has since 2013. Those Chargers ran on 45.8% of offensive plays. The 10 versions since have reached 40% in run rate just twice and never exceeded 42.2%. Check our WR rankings for updates on Williams and the rest of the affected wideouts.
The Patriots are signing TE Austin Hooper to a one-year deal worth "up to" $4.5 million, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Hooper is reuniting with OC Alex Van Pelt, who was Cleveland's OC when Hooper was there in 2020 and 2021. Hooper finished 22nd and 30th among TEs in PPR points per game those years and was even less productive the last two in Tennessee and then Las Vegas. The 29-year-old will slot in behind TE Hunter Henry in New England and is not worth rostering in fantasy football.
A day after being released by the Patriots, WR DeVante Parker inked a one-year, $4.69 million deal with the Eagles, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. It's a bit surprising that Philadelphia made this move so quickly and might make Parker the favorite for the No. 3 WR job this season. Even then, though, he'd need an A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith injury to sniff reliable fantasy value. Parker hasn't topped 539 receiving yards in a season since 2020 and turned 31 in January.
The Panthers acquired WR Diontae Johnson and a seventh-round pick from the Steelers in exchange for CB Donte Jackson and a sixth-rounder, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. It's a relatively cheap price to pay for a guy with 332 catches over the past four seasons. Johnson's production has largely been volume-based, though. His 6.7 yards per target over those last four years ranks 67th among 71 WRs with 200+ total targets during that stretch. Johnson didn't rank better 23rd in yards per route in any of those seasons. That said, he immediately becomes the Panthers' clear No. 1 WR. And Carolina figures to throw it a bunch more than the Arthur Smith-led Steelers. QB play is a concern, of course, after Bryce Young's ugly rookie season. But the move is still a win for Johnson's 2024 fantasy value. In Pittsburgh, meanwhile, George Pickens will likely get a crack at No. 1 WR duties. The Steelers will certainly be adding to the WR corps this offseason, though. And Arthur Smith's run-heavy offense will keep Pickens' upside capped.
The Bears are signing TE Gerald Everett to a two-year, $12 million deal, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Everett is reuniting with OC Shane Waldron, who was the OC for Everett's final season with Seattle in 2021. Everett tallied a 48-478-4 line in 15 games that year, ranking 20th among TEs in PPR points per game. He turned in TE13 and TE23 finishes with the Chargers the past two years. Everett figures to slot in behind TE Cole Kmet in Chicago and is unlikely to be a reliable weekly fantasy play. But his arrival dings Kmet's 2024 fantasy outlook.
The Browns and QB Jameis Winston have agreed to a one-year deal worth up to $8.7 million, according to insider Jordan Schultz. Winston had interest from "multiple teams," per Schultz, but was presumably not offered a starting job. He'll slide in behind QB Deshaun Watson in Cleveland. Watson is coming off a disappointing 2023 season that ended with a right shoulder injury that required surgery. Considering what the Browns are paying him, though, Watson will need to be even worse this year for Winston to see the field. Winston is only worth stashing in deeper superflex dynasty leagues. This signing means that QB Joe Flacco won't be back in Cleveland.
The Bengals are signing TE Mike Gesicki to a one-year deal worth "up to" $3.25 million, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. It might feel like an exciting landing spot at first glance, but no Cincinnati TE has finished better than 19th in PPR points in four seasons since QB Joe Burrow arrived. Gesicki, of course, has been a non-factor in fantasy over the past two years, totaling 606 yards and seven TDs across 34 games for the Dolphins and then Patriots. Consider him just a TE3 in early best-ball drafts.
The Chiefs signed TE Irv Smith Jr. to a one-year deal. Injuries have limited Smith to only 49 games in five seasons. When healthy, he’s given no indication that he’ll produce as a future TE1. That doesn’t change in Kansas City, where he’ll battle Noah Gray and others for the backup role.
As many expected, the Ravens have agreed to terms with former Titans RB Derrick Henry. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that Henry will get a two-year, $16 million deal -- with a $20 million max value and $9 million guaranteed for 2024. That means Henry will take over the backfield for at least the coming season. Despite last offseason's OC switch and other investments in the passing game, Baltimore finished 2023 as the league's most run-heavy offense (50.3% of plays). QB Lamar Jackson skews that rate with his scrambling, but it's clearly a good situation for Henry. His Underdog Fantasy ADP sits at RB15 as of this writing, at the end of Round 5. If Henry stays in that range, he'll be smash pick for best ball. Check our best ball rankings to compare our outlook for Henry with the market's. J.K. Dobbins, meanwhile, just got easier to drop in dynasty formats -- in case you were on the fence. Keaton Mitchell? We'll have to watch his progress throughout the summer as he returns from a December ACL tear.
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that WR Darnell Mooney is signing a three-year deal with the Falcons. Mooney joins an offense that now has QB Kirk Cousins and features a new coaching staff. Mooney might have trouble ranking higher than fourth in targets, with WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson likely drawing more focus. But Mooney and his 11.7-yard career average target depth can fit nicely as a downfield worker. Expect him to be more of a later-round best ball factor than worthwhile option in lineup-setting formats. Check our best ball rankings for his updated position.
You might have thought the Bengals were going to release Joe Mixon ... because that's what got reported Monday. Instead, though, Cincinnati is trading the RB to Houston. That's about as good an outcome as Mixon could have found. Houston jumped from 31st in offensive DVOA in 2022 to 14th last year -- with the run game (19th) trailing the pass offense (10th). Further maturation for QB C.J. Stroud and his young wideouts can only help. And the Texans clearly believe Mixon to be an upgrade over the Devin Singletary-Dameon Pierce tandem. Trading for Mixon's contract ($6 million cap hit in 2024) instead of waiting for him to hit the open market says Houston wants Mixon to lead the backfield. Perhaps Mixon draws fewer targets in an offense unlikely to pass as much as Cincinnati's. But it should be a good spot for his efficiency and scoring opportunities. Mixon played all 17 games in 2023, scored the second-most TDs of his career (despite the Bengals' injury-driven offensive issues), and showed no meaningful drop-off across his advanced metrics. Consider him a high-RB2 for 2024 drafts, with upside into RB1 range. Check our best ball rankings for his updated position.
The Vikings have agreed to a deal with former Packers RB Aaron Jones, according to The Athletic's Dianna Russini. This comes just a day after Jones' release and Green Bay's announced deal with RB Josh Jacobs. Minnesota finished last season with Ty Chandler leading the backfield, and he should still factor in a decent amount. Jones has averaged 12.1 carries per game for his career and reached 13.0 in just two of his seven seasons. But we're betting Jones will lead the Vikings in both carries and RB targets. He should be a top-24 RB across draft formats and carries upside into the top 12. Jones turned 29 in December but also closed out the season with five straight games of 108+ rushing yards (and 18+ carries in each of those). Chandler looks like an RB4 -- with handcuff upside behind a starter who has missed games in five of seven seasons. Check our updated RB rankings to see where the new teammates land.
The Vikings and QB Sam Darnold agreed to a one-year deal worth "up to" $10 million, NFL Network reports. That's more than "backup money" but doesn't necessarily guarantee Darnold the 2024 starting job. Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall are the other QBs currently on the roster, but Minnesota could certainly add a rookie in April's draft. It's been a popular landing spot for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy in mock drafts. Darnold attempted 46 passes for the 49ers last year, with 26 of them coming in a meaningless regular-season finale. He started 17 games for the Panthers across the 2021 and 2022 seasons, completing 59.5% of his passes at 6.7 yards per attempt -- right around his career averages. Darnold would be a significant downgrade from QB Kirk Cousins for Minnesota's pass catchers.
The Texans re-signed WR Noah Brown, ESPN's DJ Bien-Aime reports. Brown flashed in spurts last year, with receiving lines of 6-153-1, 7-172-0, and 8-82-1. He struggled staying healthy otherwise, missing seven games and most of an eighth. Brown, of course, will be no better than No. 3 on Houston's depth chart in 2024 behind WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell. If he hangs on to that No. 3 job, though, Brown could at least provide value as a late-round best-ball pick.
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