Curtis Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Samuel’s career-best fantasy finish came in 2020 – alongside current Bills OC Joe Brady.

That year, he slotted 23rd in PPR, averaging 14.1 points per game.

That’s a low-probability ceiling for Samuel. Still, his dynamic skill set should thrive with Josh Allen and a passing game that lacks proven weapons.

Consider Samuel a worthwhile mid-round target.

What We Learned Last Year

• Samuel sat out one game with a toe injury.
  • After struggling with injuries early in his career, Samuel has now missed only one game over the past two seasons.
• Among 49 WRs with 80+ targets, Samuel ranked 8th in catch rate, 47th in yards per catch, 47th in aDOT, and T-41st in yards per route run.
• Samuel scored 4 TDs, bringing his career TD rate to a modest 6.9%.
  • He’s never topped 6 TDs in a single season.
• He remained a primary slot, playing 70.2% of his snaps from that alignment.
• Samuel benefited from a Washington offense that led the league in pass rate (69%).

What to Expect in 2024

• Samuel brings familiarity with OC Joe Brady.
  • The duo worked together in 2020 in Carolina, when Samuel set career highs in catches (77), yards (851), and rush attempts (41).
• Look for Samuel to be a hybrid player who works in motion to scheme up free releases/targets.
• His contract indicates the Bills view him as a legitimate piece of the offense. Consider that they lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
  • That duo takes away 241 targets from 2023.
  • Meanwhile, Samuel’s deal calls for $15 million in guaranteed money. He’s easily Buffalo’s highest-paid WR.
• Keon Coleman arrived as an early Round 2 pick.
  • While he projects more on the outside, Coleman’s development will play a key role in Samuel’s ultimate target count.
  • The same goes for Khalil Shakir, who’s more similar to Samuel as a slot type. Shakir came on down the stretch last year and will push for a larger role this summer.
• Josh Allen returns and remains squarely in his prime.
  • Aside from some issues with INTs, Allen’s advanced numbers show no cause for concern.