Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson has already cracked the top 12 QBs in Underdog Fantasy ADP. Drafters are obviously chasing his rushing upside, and he'll need big ground production to deliver for fantasy. There have been seven rookie-QB seasons in NFL history that would have ranked among last year's top 12 QB scores. That group had a median of 34.0 rushing yards per game (578 yards over a 17-game season) and a median of 234.8 passing yards per game. All seven of those rookie QBs averaged at least 213.3 passing yards per game. That would obviously be an easier level for Richardson to reach right away. And he's capable of smashing that 34-yard rushing benchmark. Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts all exceeded 50 rushing yards per game in 2022. Colts owner Jim Irsay recently reiterated that the team won't be scared to play Richardson early. The rookie doesn't sit as high in our 2023 fantasy football rankings as he does in Underdog ADP. But he certainly has the upside to deliver QB1-level production. Read more about his upside (and downside) in our Richardson profile.
Colts owner Jim Irsay hinted on Monday that his team plans to get rookie QB Anthony Richardson on the field early. "We know it’s going to be tough. But he has to play to get better," Irsay said on the Pat McAfee Show. "There’s no question. Gardner [Minshew] could play better early on, him just being a veteran. But we have to get Anthony on the field." Irsay added that HC Shane Steichen will ultimately decide when Richardson takes over as the starter. But Steichen had a similar message back in April, saying, "the development of players comes with more experience." We just bumped Richardson's projection up to 14 games played -- and that might still be conservative. His rushing ability gives him obvious QB1 upside whenever he takes the field.
Colts beat writer Kevin Bowen considers WR Josh Downs “the ideal slot receiver complement.” While Michael Pittman will kick inside some, Downs’ path to playing in 3-WR sets (with Alec Pierce) looks clear. Bowen adds that the rookie showed a “strong early connection” with QB Anthony Richardson, with Downs “easily creating space in those short areas of the field.” Colts area scout Chad Henry shared the same sentiment. “He’s a playmaker,” Henry said of Downs. “We don’t have a whole lot of guys like him. He’s sort of a human chain mover. Good luck covering him in a short area.” Downs missed part of the spring with a knee issue, but all indications suggest it’s minor. Depending on the play of Richardson, Downs could become a deep-league PPR spot starter. For now, though, he’s not someone to circle on your cheat sheet.
Colts WR Michael Pittman got plenty of target and reception volume last season. He finished 16th among WRs in target share and 10th in the league in receptions. But his yardage efficiency tumbled. Pittman's yards per catch fell from 12.3 in 2021 to 9.3, with poor QB play a (the?) primary culprit. His average depth of target fell by more than 2 yards, with QBs Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles all ranking 28th or worse in Pro Football Focus passing grade. Pittman also produced his lowest mark yet, though, in yards after catch per reception. According to PFF, he tied for just 53rd in yards per route and ranked 44th in receiving grade, among 97 WRs with 40+ targets. Pittman did, at least, rank a decent 26th in targets per route, matching his 2021 ranking. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson should be good for Pittman's aDOT. But we'd bet on the WR coming down from last year's 70.2% catch rate. Overall, it's tough to bet on big upside for Pittman from his WR3-level ADP. Read more about the outlook for Indy's lead wideout and see where he lands in our 2023 fantasy football rankings.
Colts OC Jim Bob Cooter gave his early impressions of rookie QB Anthony Richardson. “I think he’s got a really good head on his shoulders. Kind of sees and understands what’s going on around him at a pretty high level,” Cooter said. “I’ve been really impressed with him just dealing with him in meeting rooms and different situations that we all encounter each other in. So (he) just has had a good way about him handling this stuff." Cooter believes Richardson’s experience at Florida will prepare him for life in Indianapolis. “Shoot, playing quarterback in the NFL, you’re usually going to have your ups and your downs. You’re usually going to have some criticism and some praise. I think that’s a really good trait to walk in the door with, the ability to handle what’s coming at you and have a good mindset about it, and I think Anthony’s done a nice job of that so far, at least in my eyes.” Richardson remains the favorite to start at least a majority of the games for Indy in 2023. Looking at fantasy PPG, he projects as a fringe top-15 QB.
Colts owner Jim Irsay told NFL.com's Judy Battista that QB Anthony Richardson will start games this season. It's fair to wonder how much knowledge or input Irsay actually has on this. As the team owner, he shouldn't really be involved with on-field decisions. And he certainly doesn't tend to hold back with his public comments. But QBs chosen early in Round 1 historically are likely to take over the starting job at some point in Year 1 -- most commonly before mid-season. Many evaluators think Richardson will need more development time than Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud. But there are others who believe he's much closer to ready. Indy signed QB Gardner Minshew for just $3.5 million on a one-year deal in free agency. That's light even for a backup at this point. So they clearly didn't sign Minshew intending to have him start for a year. We already have Richardson projected to start more than half his rookie season in our 2023 fantasy football QB rankings. And we'll be watching his offseason closely. His rushing ability makes the upside enormous.
Here's what HC Shane Steichen had to say about QB Anthony Richardson's development shortly after the Colts took him with the fourth overall pick on Thursday night: "I think the development of players comes with more experience... I think when you play more, that's how you develop... practice reps, game reps, I think that's how you develop." That sure doesn't sound like the Colts are planning to keep the relatively inexperienced Richardson on the sidelines for long. Indianapolis does have a capable veteran in QB Gardner Minshew, who might still be the favorite to open the season under center. But we're expecting to see plenty of Richardson this year. Our initial projections have him playing 11 games.
The Colts selected Florida QB Anthony Richardson with the fourth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Richardson tested as the most athletic QB in NFL Combine history. A 4.43 forty-time, a 40.5-inch vertical, and a 129-inch broad jump are simply incredible. At 6’4, and 244 pounds, Richardson’s dynamic speed/power combo showed up at Florida. The 21-year-old tallied 654 rushing yards and 9 TDs in his one season as a starter. Inexperience is part of the problem here. But Richardson needs to kick durability concerns after suffering knee, ankle, and hamstring injuries in college. He also needs to show more down-to-down consistency — especially in the short to intermediate ranges. Ultimately, we see the 21-year-old improving over time. With elite rushing ability and plenty of arm talent, Richardson has the high-upside profile you should chase in rookie drafts. Landing on the Colts also turns up a nice schematic fit with HC Shane Steichen, who helped develop Jalen Hurts. Indy added Gardner Minshew this offseason, so the Colts don’t have to rush Richardson on the field. Current projections have the rookie for 11 games.
As expected, QB Anthony Richardson tested as an elite athlete at the NFL Combine. In fact, the Florida product set QB Combine records with a 40.5” vertical and a 10’9” broad jump. He added a ridiculous 4.43-second (official) 40-yard dash…at 6’4, 244 pounds. Insane. While his accuracy turns up as spotty on film, it’d be a shock if he’s not a top-10 pick come April.
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