Anthony Richardson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Richardson proved that he has the ultimate upside last year in a very limited sample size of only four games. He finished as a top-five QB in half of those games, and if he can replicate that success, QB1 overall is possible.

But, the limited sample does make Richardson a risk. He did not play a game with Jonathan Taylor last year and that could particularly impact Richardson’s rushing production. His poor passing metrics also raise red flags.

Ultimately, Richardon is a swing for the fences pick who has an extremely wide range of outcomes.

What We Learned Last Year

• Richardson finished as the QB38 in total fantasy points (72.7) and QB20 in points per game (14.5).
• He had two top-five finishes out of his four games played.
• Richardson suffered a concussion in Week 2, causing him to miss one game. He missed the final 12 games of the season due to an A/C joint sprain in his shoulder. He underwent surgery in October.
• In his four games played, Richardson compiled:
  • 577 passing yards
  • 3 passing TDs
  • 136 rushing yards
  • 4 rushing TDs
• Out of the 49 QBs with 90+ dropbacks, he led the league in fantasy points per dropback (0.73).
• Out of those same QBs, Richardson ranked:
  • 38th in Pro Football Focus passing grade (56.5)
  • 48th in PFF rushing grade (45.3)
  • 28th in average target depth (8.0)
  • 40th in adjusted completion percentage (71.1%)
• Richardson played behind a very competent O-line that ranked No. 6 in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

• Richardson enters his second season with the Colts under HC and play-caller Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.
• The Colts continued investing in the offense around Richardson by drafting:
  • WR Adonai Mitchell (second round)
  • iOL Matt Goncalves (third Round)
  • iOL Tanor Bortolini (fourth Round)
• The Colts are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They also are 20th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +6000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
• Richardson enters his second season at 22 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Richardson’s career and profile will produce at 90% of his peak value at age-22.