Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Fool’s Gold or Hidden Gems? Week 6 Regression Picks

Positive Regression Does Not Equal Progression

I've seen these terms incorrectly used interchangeably.

Positive regression refers to a player returning to an expected or average level of performance after underperforming. It’s often used to identify players who are getting good opportunities—like targets or touches—but haven’t produced the expected results yet. The idea is that these players are due for a bounce-back in stats, such as:

• scoring more touchdowns
• gaining more yards
• or catching a higher rate of passes. 

Progression describes a player increasing (improving) their average or baseline, not returning to the expected. 

We've seen progression with Tank Bigsby from 2023 to 2024. He just got better. He looks like a different player. 

We've seen positive regression for Tony Pollard from 2023 (3.1 fantasy points per game under expected) to 2024 (0.2 under).

It's just a minor pet peeve of mine. I'll step off my soapbox now.

Why Regression Matters in Fantasy

In fantasy football, overperforming players (playing better than expected) will likely slow down. And underperforming players may improve to match their expected performance. 

We want to spot temporary spikes or dips to help predict the returns toward "normal."

To spot regression candidates, I like to use expected points models. Expected = average/normal.

Expected Points models (x-P) quantify the expected value of plays based on:

• down
• distance
• field position
• and game situation

They calculate how many points a player will likely score on each play and compare it to historical outcomes in similar situations. 

For example, a pass on third-and-10 from the opponent’s 20-yard line has a different x-P value than a first-and-goal run from the 5-yard line.

An x-P model assigns these values to determine how efficient players are in turning opportunities into points.

There are several good x-P models out there. For this series, I’ll use Pro Football Focus' expected-points model. 

I'll highlight some outlier players at RB, WR, and TE, and then break down some potential actions to take on these players.

How to Use Expected Points

• Identify Efficiency: Use x-P to evaluate which players outperform their opportunities (scoring above their x-P) or underperform (scoring below). Players consistently outperforming x-P may have elite efficiency, while those underperforming could signal a potential bounce-back or inefficiency.

• Spot Opportunity: x-P helps highlight players getting high-value opportunities (e.g. red-zone touches, end-zone targets) even if their actual fantasy points lag behind. This can signal potential breakout candidates or buy-low trade targets.

• DFS Options: A player’s values are often tied to production and projection. The market can misprice a player’s true potential, especially in small slates. 

The quickest way to analyze data is to throw it into a graph.

The graphs below show the expected points per game (Y-axis) vs. the actual points per game (X-axis), with a red line in the middle showing a perfectly balanced player. 

Players above the red line have underperformed vs. expectations.

The players below the line have overperformed vs. expectations. 

Expecting the Expected: RB

Underperforming RBs

Breece Hall, New York Jets

I don’t think it is a surprise to anyone that Hall has been performing below expectations. 

His receiving production is slightly below (-17%) expectations, but his rushing yardage (143) is well behind his expected (206), and he is about a TD behind expectation. 

The Jets have looked awful on offense, and Aaron Rodgers is well past his prime. This week, the Jets fired Robert Saleh, and Nathaniel Hackett was relieved of play-calling duty. 

Maybe we should have a little hope. I am going to float some offers to the Hall manager in my leagues and see what happens. 

Overperforming RBs

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

Over the last four weeks, Hubbard has outperformed expectations, scoring 20.3 PPG vs. his 16.4 x-PPG, a difference of 3.8. 

His rushing production stands out as unsustainable, exceeding expected rushing yards by 124 (379 vs. 255).

Jonathon Brooks will likely play this year, which will hurt Hubbard's production late in the season. 

For the year, Hubbard is the RB11 in PPG but only RB23 in x-PPG. If you can sell him as an RB1 to a leaguemate, do it. 

Expecting the Expected: WR

Underperforming WRs

Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis Colts

Mitchell has significantly underperformed, with just 3.3 PPG compared to 8.0 x-PPG (-4.7 PPG). 

His receiving numbers (5 receptions, 68 yards) are well below expected, highlighting his lack of involvement in the passing game. 

Additionally, he has no TDs despite a 1.04 expected TD total.

Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are dealing with injuries, making Mitchell a solid bench stash and maybe even an interesting start in deep leagues or DFS. 

Overperforming WRs 

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Over the last four weeks, Chase has significantly outperformed expectations, with 24.0 PPG compared to 13.7 x-PPG (+10.3 PPG).

His 431 receiving yards are more than double the expected 211, and his 5 TDs more than double the expected 2.44. 

His volume (23 receptions) is also exceeding expectations (19), highlighting his big-play ability and consistent involvement.

The only concern with Chase is sustainability. His performance is well above expected, meaning a potential regression could come if his efficiency drops or the offense slows. 

We know he is elite. I am not concerned about him in general, but I do not expect quite the output we have seen over the last few weeks. 

That said, Chase is also likely due for some rebound in target share. His 20.2% ranks just 36th among WRs -- and well behind his shares from last year (25%, 14th) and 2022 (27.1%, sixth).

Expecting the Expected: TEs

Underperforming TEs

Still, pretty much all of them

Overperforming TEs

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Tucker Kraft is one of the hottest TEs on the market right now, and he likely just went for a lot of FAAB in your league. But should we be confident in that value?

He has significantly outperformed expectations, posting 12.5 PPG compared to 7.5 x-PPG -- a difference of 5.1.

His 181 receiving yards far exceed his expected yards of about 118. Most of those unexpected yards came last week (46) on a couple of big plays. 

Kraft's 3 TDs over the past four weeks outpaced the expected 0.7, suggesting regression could be coming. 

His target volume closely matches expectations, making his spike in touchdowns and yards a potential outlier moving forward.

Kraft is exciting, but we should not crown him the TE1 for the rest of season. Let’s keep our expectations reasonable. 

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.