Dak Prescott - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

After a slow start in 2023, Prescott went on to post the QB3 fantasy season.

This offense remains highly reliant on his arm – and the health of CeeDee Lamb. The All-Pro WR has missed only one game since entering the league, though. And Prescott made it through 2023 without missing action.

The 31-year-old shakes out as a mid-tier QB1.

What We Learned Last Year

• Prescott enjoyed a resurgent season.
  • Appearing in all 17 games, he ranked third in QB fantasy points.
  • That was despite tallying only 2 rushing TDs. Dak’s 4,516 yards ranked third league-wide; his 36 TDs paced all QBs.
  • He set or matched personal bests in completions (410) and completion rate (69.5%).
• His season began slowly, with fantasy finishes of QB29, QB17, QB17, QB20, and QB25.
  • From then on, Dak’s volume increased, helping him finish as a top-four fantasy QB seven times.
  • He finished worse than QB16 only once over that stretch.
• Prescott scrambled on just 4.3% of his dropbacks – below league average. His best rushing days are very likely behind him.
• Dak tied or led all QBs in EPA per play and success rate when pressured last year. That bodes well for any O-line turbulence in ‘24.
• Dak wisely leaned on stud WR CeeDee Lamb.
  • Lamb accounted for 32.9% of Prescott’s completions, 38.7% of his yards, and 33.3% of his TDs.
  • Breakout TE Jake Ferguson quickly developed into Dak’s No. 2 target (71-761-5).
• Dallas finished 16th in pass-block win rate; 11th in PFF’s pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

• Dallas lost LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz in free agency.
  • Round 1 pick Tyler Guyton, a college RT, is likely to play LT
  • Round 3 pick Cooper Beebe is the favorite to replace Biadasz. The rookie played LT, RT, and LG in college.
• We’re unconcerned about the other spots: LG Tyler Smith, RG Zack Martin, and RT Terence Steele. We anticipate a bounce-back year for Steele, who’s further removed from a ‘22 ACL/MCL tear.
• Dallas moved on from WR Michael Gallup, a non-factor in 2023.
• In his place, the team will look for more out of Jalen Tolbert and Round 6 rookie Ryan Flournoy.
  • There’s been offseason buzz on Tolbert, but he enters a make-or-break third season.
  • Flournoy turns 25 in October but brings solid size and reliable hands.
• CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks return as the top two WRs.
  • Lamb will remain among the league’s most targeted players.
  • Cooks showed signs of decline last year and turns 31 in September. Consider him a subpar real-life WR2.
• HC Mike McCarthy and OC Brian Schottenheimer return as the offensive brain trust.
  • Last year, Dallas ranked 12th in pass rate; fourth in pass rate over expected.
  • Given their questions in the backfield, another pass-centric offense is likely.