Stefon Diggs - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Diggs was successful with Josh Allen and the Bills as the primary target. But his output grinded to a halt after the bye week, failing to put up a top-24 WR game.

A fresh start with the Texans should benefit him, though the situation is more crowded with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Joe Mixon, and Dalton Schultz rounding out the weapons for C.J. Stroud.

Diggs is still only 30 years old, though. With a high-powered offense led by OC Bobby Slowik, Diggs should put up consistent WR2 numbers.

What We Learned Last Year

• Diggs posted a season-long line of 107-1,183-8 (17 games).
• He reached 150+ targets, 100+ catches, 1,100+ yards, and 8+ TDs in all four seasons in Buffalo.
• However, Diggs’ 10.7 yards per catch, 67.5% catch rate, and 1.76 yards per route run last year all fell well below his career averages.
• Diggs’ production was also lopsided. Buffalo fired OC Ken Dorsey before Week 11.
  • With Dorsey, Diggs averaged 10.2 targets, 7.3 catches, 86.8 yards, and .7 TDs per game.
  • Diggs finished as a top-15 PPR WR in seven of ten games with Dorsey.
  • Under fill-in OC Joe Brady, Diggs averaged 8.3 targets, 4.9 catches, 43.1 yards, and .11 TDs per game.
  • He scored once and hit 80 yards once over that stretch. Diggs finished WR45 or worse in five of seven regular season games with Brady.
• He ranked as the PPR WR9 in total fantasy points (258.1) and WR15 in points per game (9.9).
• He missed no games due to injury, his third straight healthy season.
• He had five top-12 finishes. He also had eight WR37 or worse finishes.
• Diggs’ target share improved from 28.0% in 2022 (12th-best among WRs) to 30.0% (fourth-best among WRs).
• Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, Diggs ranked
  • 20th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 27th in yards per route run (1.99)
  • 56th in average target depth (10.8).
• Among those same WRs, Diggs was 41st in average separation yards (2.8) per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

• Diggs was traded to the Texans and signed a one-year deal worth $22.52 million with $20.805 million guaranteed. His $22.52 million per year ranks 15th among WRs.
• Diggs will enter his first season under HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik.
• The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
• Diggs enters his ninth season at 30 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Digg’s career will produce between 85% and 93% of his peak value at age-30.
• Diggs will face stiff target competition this season from Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Both guys ranked top-16 among 80 qualifying WRs in both yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. (Diggs ranked 20th and 26th.)