Zamir White - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

White totaled just 37 carries through his first one-and-three-quarters NFL seasons. Then he was a workhorse over the final four games of last year, averaging 21.0 carries and 3.3 targets and ranking 11th among RBs in PPR points per game.

The Raiders lost RB Josh Jacobs this offseason and only added RBs Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube. It makes White the favorite for the 2024 starting job.

He carries a wide range of outcomes this season, with the upside to score as a top-15 RB and the downside to lose the lead job to Mattison.

What We Learned Last Year

• White carried just 17 times as a 2022 rookie and 20 times over the first 13 games of last season.
• A quad injury knocked RB Josh Jacobs out for the final four games of last season, allowing White to step in as the lead back. Over those four games, he totaled:
  • 84 carries
  • 397 rushing yards
  • 1 rushing TD
  • 13 targets
  • 9 catches
  • 60 receiving yards
• White played 68.5% of Vegas’ offensive snaps over those four games.
• He tied RB Najee Harris for the most carries in the league during that stretch. He ranked third in rushing yards.
• White ran a route on 45.3% of Raiders pass plays and drew a 9.6% target share.
• He ranked eighth among RBs in expected PPR points per game over those final four weeks; ninth in expected half-PPR points.
• White ranked 11th among RBs in actual PPR points per game and 13th in half-PPR during that stretch.
• His weekly PPR finishes:
  • RB12
  • RB16
  • RB16
  • RB21
• Among 31 RBs with 20+ carries over the final four weeks, White ranked:
  • 18th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 22nd in Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating
  • 17th in PFF rushing grade
• White was a 2022 fourth-round pick out of Georgia.
• He tore an ACL in his final high school season and then the other ACL in the summer prior to his freshman campaign.
• White led Georgia in carries and rushing yards in each of his final two seasons.
• He clocked a 4.40-second 40 time at 6’0, 214 pounds at the Combine, giving him a 96th-percentile Speed Score.

What to Expect in 2024

• RB Josh Jacobs left for Green Bay in free agency. The Raiders added free-agent Alexander Mattison and rookie Dylan Laube to the backfield.
• Mattison got just $2 million on his one-year deal. He hit a career-high 180 carries last year but fell short of 4.0 yards per carry for the third straight season. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Mattison ranked:
  • 33rd in yards after contact per attempt
  • 35th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • 39th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
• White beat Mattison in both yards after contact per attempt and PFF rushing grade last year.
• The Raiders selected Laube in Round 6 of this spring’s draft. He spent six seasons at New Hampshire and will turn 25 in December. Laube led all RBs with 117 catches over the last two seasons and led the nation with 194 all-purpose yards per game last year. But, as a small-school, sixth-round rookie, he’s not a good bet to make an impact this season.
• Antonio Pierce returns as HC after taking over for the final nine games of last year. The Raiders ran it a bit more under Pierce than they did under previous HC Josh McDaniels.
  • Vegas went from a 61.2% pass rate in eight games under McDaniels to 57.3% pass under Pierce.
  • The Raiders registered a -1% Pass Rate Over Expected under McDaniels vs. -3% under Pierce.
• After a deal with Kliff Kingsbury fell through, the Raiders hired Luke Getsy as their new OC in February.
  • Getsy spent the last two years as Bears OC, where Chicago ranked 28th and 20th in total yards and 23rd and 18th in points.
  • The Bears ranked 32nd in pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022; 31st in pass rate and 27th in PROE last year.
  • Those offenses were predominantly quarterbacked by Justin Fields, which undoubtedly skewed the offense toward the run. We’re projecting a more balanced attack from Getsy in Vegas. It’s worth noting that he was the Packers’ QB coach and passing-game coordinator before his stint with the Bears.
• Vegas figures to get subpar QB play this season, with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell set to battle for the starting job this summer.
• The 2023 Raiders ranked:
  • 14th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
  • 17th in adjusted line yards
• Three of last year’s starters – LT Kolton Miller, RG Dylan Parham, and C Andre James – return for the 2024 campaign.
• Second-round rookie Jackson Powers-Johnson is expected to start at LG, while 2022 seventh-rounder Thayer Munford is the favorite for the RT job.
• This projects to be a middling offensive line again in 2024.