Tyler Lockett - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Lockett turns 32 in September and looks like a player in decline, posting his lowest fantasy points per game and yards per route since 2017 last year.

He still finished 41st among WRs in PPR points per game, though, despite underachieving in the TD department. And new OC Ryan Grubb could provide a boost to Seattle’s passing game this season.

Lockett isn’t an exciting pick but is fine to target in WR4 range.

What We Learned Last Year

• Lockett caught 79 balls for 894 yards and five TDs in 17 games last year.
• He finished 41st among WRs in PPR points per game; 49th in non-PPR points per game.
• It was Lockett’s worst fantasy output since 2017.
• He was a volatile weekly producer. Lockett finished as a top-15 PPR WR in four weeks but ranked outside the top-40 nine times.
• He got unlucky in the TD department, scoring five TDs on 6.7 expected TDs.
  • Lockett scored on 6.3% of his catches last year, well down from his 10.1% TD rate over his first eight NFL seasons.
• His 7.3 yards per target was a career low, and his 1.61 yards per route was his worst mark since 2017.
• Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Lockett ranked:
  • 57th in yards per target
  • 43rd in yards per route
  • 29th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• Lockett trailed teammate D.K. Metcalf in all three metrics but beat Jaxon Smith-Njigba in all three.
• Lockett led the Seahawks with 122 targets, although Metcalf beat him in targets per game (7.4 to 7.2).
• Seahawks WR targets in their 16 games together last year:
  • Metcalf 119
  • Lockett 117
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba 93

What to Expect in 2024

• Lockett turns 32 in September. Our aging-curve research says to expect 75% of peak production at age-32 – down from 82% at 31.
• Metcalf, who’s in his prime at 26, and Smith-Njigba, who should be ascending in year two, return for 2024.
• Seattle has a brand new coaching staff led by HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb.
• This will be Grubb’s first NFL coaching job.
  • He’s been coaching in various offensive roles for various schools since 2003.
  • Grubb most recently served as the University of Washington’s OC. Those Huskies teams both ranked top 13 in the nation in total yards and points per game.
  • They were especially lethal through the air, ranking first and then second in passing yards per game. Washington ranked top five in pass attempts both years.
• Grubb said in early June that his Seahawks offense might not be as pass-heavy.
  • “So when you talk about some of the run-pass balance, you have backs like (Kenneth Walker III) and Zach (Charbonnet), you are pretty excited about your ability to run the ball. So I think for us we are trying to meld some things together with some things we’ve done in the past, whether it’s a long time ago or even just the last few years and get the guys to understand that we want to be a physically dominant team and at the same time have that same explosive, confusing element that people are used to.”
• Grubb loved throwing deep at Washington. QB Michael Penix ranked fourth in passes of 20+ yards in 2022 and then led the country in 2023.
• We’ll see what that means for Lockett. He’s registered low 10.6- and 10.8-yard average target depths the past two seasons but was over 12 yards in three of four seasons before that.