Trey McBride - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

McBride turned in an impressive 2023 breakout, finishing seventh among TEs in PPR points and second in yards per route. He did it despite playing behind TE Zach Ertz for the first seven games of the season and underachieving in the TD department.

Ertz is gone now, although the Cardinals likely upgraded by swapping WR Marquise Brown for WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

McBride probably won’t hog as big a target share this season and he did sans Ertz last year. But the third-year TE looks like a good bet for top-5 fantasy production with the upside to lead the position in scoring.

What We Learned Last Year

• McBride broke out last year in his second NFL season, catching 81 passes for 825 yards and three TDs.
• He ranked seventh among TEs in total PPR points and ninth in PPR points per game.
• Among TEs, McBride ranked:
  • 6th in targets
  • 7th in target share
  • 5th in catches
  • 7th in yards
  • 18th in TDs
• He got unlucky in the TD department. McBride ranked:
  • 13th among TEs in red-zone targets (15)
  • 10th in end-zone targets (6)
  • 10th in expected TDs (4.9)
• Among 33 TEs with 40+ targets last year, McBride ranked:
  • 6th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 2nd in yards per route run
• McBride spent the first seven games of the season playing behind TE Zach Ertz.
  • McBride ran a route on just 35% of pass plays over that span.
  • He totaled 21 targets, 15 catches, 170 yards, and 0 TDs.
• Ertz’s season-ending quad injury thrust McBride into a full-time role over the final 10 games.
  • He ran a route on 84% of pass plays.
  • He registered a 26.2% target share, which led all TEs.
  • He totaled 85 targets, 66 catches, 655 yards, and three TDs. The targets, catches, and yards all ranked top three among TEs.
  • He ranked third among TEs in PPR points; fourth in non-PPR.
  • McBride finished as a top-12 PPR TE in eight of those 10 games, including four top-3 finishes.

What to Expect in 2024

• Ertz is now in Washington. (Thank God.)
• WR Marquise Brown, who ranked second on the Cardinals to McBride last year in targets, catches, and receiving yards, left for Kansas City in free agency.
• But Arizona added WR Marvin Harrison with the fourth overall pick of this spring’s draft. He figures to command at least as many targets as Brown, and likely more.
• It’s worth noting that McBride’s big 10 games to close last season included three missed games from Brown and four from WR Michael Wilson.
• OC Drew Petzing returns for his second season with the Cardinals.
• Last year’s Cardinals ranked:
  • 22nd in pass rate
  • 24th in pass attempts
  • 26th in pass yards
  • 24th in pass TDs
• Arizona averaged 163 passing yards and 0.9 TDs over the first nine games of the season with QB Jacoby Brissett. That increased to 210 yards and 1.3 TDs with QB Kyler Murray over the final eight games.
• Murray is healthy for the 2024 season. Expect this passing game to be better.
• McBride registered a 24.6% target share and ranked fourth among TEs in PPR points in Murray’s games last year.