Rachaad White - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Our 2023 Breakout Pick, White delivered for the Buccaneers as a receiving RB who was a solid RB1 in PPR leagues.

But the Buccaneers lost OC Dave Canales and are changing offenses once again. Though White will be used heavily in the game plan, it may be difficult for him to repeat last year’s success.

They also added rookie RB Bucky Irving, who brings receiving upside.

White is a high-end RB2 both in ADP and our rankings accounting for his receptions regressing to the mean and the Buccaneers’ offense as a whole taking a step backward.

What We Learned Last Year

• White’s 1,539 total yards ranked fourth among RBs. His 64 catches also ranked fourth.
• He did not miss any games due to injury. He has not sustained an injury in his NFL career.
• White ranked as the PPR RB4 in total fantasy points and RB10 in points per game.
  • He finished RB12 or better nine times. He recorded three games between RB13 and RB24.
• He ranked 42nd among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 40.8%.
• White played 78% of the Buccaneer’s offensive snaps last season (the highest snap percentage of any RB in the league).
• He significantly improved his per-game statistics from his rookie season.
  • 16.0 carries (7.59)
  • 58.2 rushing yards (28.3)
  • 0.35 rushing TDs (0.06)
  • 4.12 targets (3.41)
  • 19.9% Opportunity Share (11.9%)
  • 3.76 catches (2.94))
  • 32.3 receiving yards (17.1)
  • 0.18 receiving TDs (0.12)
• Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, White ranked:
  • 44th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
  • 28th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
  • 46th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
• His receiving metrics were better. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, White ranked:
  • 21st in PFF receiving grade
  • 19th in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

• White enters his third season with the Buccaneers under HC Todd Bowles
• New OC Liam Coen spent last year as the Kentucky OC after coordinating the Rams in 2022.
  • In 2022, the Rams ranked 25th with 411 rushing attempts.
• The Buccaneers are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Buccaneers have the 21st-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +5500 on most sportsbooks, second best in the division.
• White enters his third season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with White’s career produces at 98% of his peak value at age-25.
• The Bucs added RB Bucky Irving in the fourth round of this spring’s draft. He’s undersized and tested poorly at the Combine. But Irving tallied 2,238 rushing yards, 712 receiving yards, and 21 TDs at Oregon over the past two seasons.