Michael Penix Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

The Falcons selected Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. It’s been a long road for Penix, whose college career began at Indiana. Unfortunately, injuries stole headlines in his four years as a Hoosier. In 2018, he missed four games with a right ACL tear. Four more games were lost the following season due to a right shoulder injury. Then in 2020, Penix retore his right ACL, costing him the last two games. Finally, a shoulder injury robbed him of seven games in 2021. It’s an exhaustive injury history for sure. But his comeback story certainly ended on a high note. Transferring to Washington in 2021, Penix excelled in an play-action based, downfield attack. He compiled 4,641-31-8 in 13 games while playing with a trio of NFL-caliber WRs: Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan. He recorded nine games north of 300 yards. Come 2023, Penix became the first player with 4,500+ yards in back-to-back seasons since Patrick Mahomes (2015-2016). So production/experience – along with arm strength – supply the bull case. On the flip side, it’s fair to question how Penix will perform outside of an excellent situation. That includes his blocking, as Washington’s O-line allowed only 16 sacks over the past two seasons. We also saw what happened when pressure reached Penix in the National Championship vs. Michigan. That game produced his lowest PFF passing grade (50.1) and yards per attempt (5.0) of the year. The Atlanta landing spot is a true head-scratcher. Kirk Cousins just inked a multi-year deal worth $100 million guaranteed. Perhaps he’s not ready to start come Week 1 – but there’s not a clear path to consistent playing time for Penix.

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Consider Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. one of the winners of the 2024 NFL Combine. Per NFL insider Ian Rapoport, Penix’s medical exams were “extremely positive.” That’s huge considering his injury history: two torn ACLs (both to his right knee), a separated A/C joint, and a fractured clavicle. The Indiana transfer excelled in an aggressive, downfield attack over the past two seasons. Throwing to top WRs like Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan, Penix led the nation with 4,903 passing yards in 2023. There's not much of a rushing ceiling to chase, however. So while Penix is a potential Round 1 pick come April, he’s not someone to prioritize in 1-QB dynasty rookie drafts.

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The Seahawks are expected to hire Ryan Grubb as their new OC under HC Mike Macdonald, according to multiple reports. This will be Grubb's first NFL coaching job. He's been in the college ranks since 2005, most recently serving as Washington's OC for the last two seasons. Both of those Huskies teams finished top 13 in the nation in both total yards and points per game. They were especially lethal through the air, ranking first and then second in passing yards per game. Grubb joins a Seahawks squad with plenty of passing-game firepower in WRs D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. QB Geno Smith will very likely be back under center in 2024. We'll see if Seattle reunites Grubb with QB Michael Penix, who was at the helm for Washington the last two years.

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