Michael Mayer - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Mayer is coming off a mediocre rookie season, finishing 35th among TEs in PPR points per game with middling advanced metrics.

He remains an intriguing long-term dynasty prospect, but his short-term fantasy value took a big hit when the Raiders selected TE Brock Bowers with the 13th overall pick of this year’s draft.

Mayer will likely need Bowers to get injured or prove not ready for a big rookie-year role in order to be a reliable fantasy factor in 2024.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mayer tallied 27 catches for 304 yards and two TDs in 14 games as a rookie last year.
• He missed the final three games of the season with a toe injury.
• Mayer ranked 36th among TEs in total PPR points; 35th in PPR points per game.
• He ran a route on just 36% of Raiders pass plays over the first five games. That spiked to 66% over his final nine games.
• Mayer’s averages over those final nine outings:
  • 3.9 targets
  • 2.7 catches
  • 29.2 yards
  • 0.2 TDs
• His scoring average across those nine games would have ranked 27th among TEs on the season.
• Mayer had a low 6.4-yard average target depth (32nd among 45 qualifying TEs).
• But his 6.0 yards after catch per reception ranked sixth.
• Among 45 TEs with 30+ targets last year, Mayer ranked:
  • 12th in yards per target
  • 31st in yards per route
  • 25th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• Here’s where he ranked in those categories among 22 rookie TEs with 30+ targets over the last five seasons:
  • 9th in yards per target
  • 15th in yards per route
  • 9th in PFF receiving grade
• Mayer was the 35th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. He set the Notre Dame TE record with 180 career receptions, despite playing just three seasons.

What to Expect in 2024

• Mayer’s fantasy value took a big hit when the Raiders selected TE Brock Bowers with the 13th overall pick of this year’s draft. Bowers led Georgia in receiving in all three of his seasons and is one of the best TE prospects to arrive in recent memory.
• The Raiders also return WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, who combined to account for 50.4% of the team’s targets last year.
• Vegas does not have an established No. 3 WR (Tre Tucker is the favorite), so this offense could run a lot of 2-TE sets with Bowers and Mayer.
• But it’s unlikely that both guys are reliable fantasy options. There have only been two instances of a team producing two top-12 fantasy TEs in the same season over the last five years, both by the Eagles’ duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. There were three other teams that produced a pair of top-20 TEs, but two of those included Taysom Hill. The other was last year’s Falcons, who had Kyle Pitts finish TE13 and Jonnu Smith TE17.
• The Raiders released QB Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason and signed QB Gardner Minshew. He’ll compete with QB Aidan O’Connell for the starting job.
• Minshew and O’Connell ranked 27th and 25th, respectively, among 33 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade last year.
• Antonio Pierce returns as HC after taking over for the final nine games of last year. The Raiders ran it a bit more under Pierce than they did under previous HC Josh McDaniels.
  • Vegas went from a 61.2% pass rate in eight games under McDaniels to 57.3% pass under Pierce.
  • The Raiders registered a -1% Pass Rate Over Expected under McDaniels vs. -3% under Pierce.
• After a deal with Kliff Kingsbury fell through, the Raiders hired Luke Getsy as their new OC in February.
  • Getsy spent the last two years as Bears OC, where Chicago ranked 28th and 20th in total yards and 23rd and 18th in points.
  • The Bears ranked 32nd in pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022; 31st in pass rate and 27th in PROE last year.
  • Those offenses were predominantly quarterbacked by Justin Fields, which undoubtedly skewed the offense toward the run. We’re projecting a more balanced attack from Getsy in Vegas. It’s worth noting that he was the Packers’ QB coach and passing-game coordinator before his stint with the Bears.