Marquise Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Brown is coming off a disappointing season in Arizona, missing three games and finishing 55th among WRs in PPR points per game.

He inked a one-year deal in free agency with Kansas City, where he’ll find himself in easily the best passing game of his career.

Brown will face stiff target competition, though, from TE Travis Kelce, WR Xavier Worthy, and WR Rashee Rice (after he serves an expected suspension). And it’s certainly worth noting that Brown has yet to finish better than WR26 in PPR points per game across five NFL seasons.

He has the upside to beat that mark this year, but he’s best treated as a WR3 in fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Brown finished with a career-low 574 receiving yards last year. His 51 catches were his fewest since his 2019 rookie campaign.
• Brown suffered a heel injury in late November that eventually cost him the final three games of the season. He also dealt with hamstring and thumb injuries earlier in the year.
• He played with QBs Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune for the first nine games. QB Kyler Murray returned for Brown’s final five games.
• It wasn’t a great spot for production. The 2023 Cardinals ranked:
  • 26th in passing yards
  • 24th in passing TDs
  • 29th in total WR PPR points
• Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Brown ranked:
  • 57th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 61st in yards per route
• The PFF receiving grade and yards per route were both career lows.
• Here’s where Brown ranked in both metrics over his first four NFL seasons:
  • 2019 - 46th and 31st out of 79
  • 2020 - 54th and 43rd out of 84
  • 2021 - 58th and 49th out of 89
  • 2022 - 45th and 46th out of 80
• Brown’s target share in games played by season:
  • 2019 - 17.7%
  • 2020 - 26.1%
  • 2021 - 25.4%
  • 2022 - 22.5%
  • 2023 - 22.8%
• Brown’s finishes among WRs in PPR points per game:
  • 2019 - 55th
  • 2020 - 47th
  • 2021 - 26th
  • 2022 - 30th
  • 2023 - 55th

What to Expect in 2024

• The Chiefs inked Brown in free agency to a one-year, $7 million deal with $6.5 million guaranteed.
• Kansas City traded up in the first round of this spring’s draft to land WR Xavier Worthy, who’s coming off three productive seasons at Texas and a Combine record 4.21-second 40 time.
• WR Rashee Rice returns after a strong rookie season, but he’s expected to draw a multi-game suspension for his involvement in a street-racing accident in Dallas in late March.
• TE Travis Kelce is also back after leading the Chiefs with 8.1 targets per game last year.
• There’s plenty of receiving production to go around in Kansas City. The Chiefs have ranked top 8 in passing yards and TDs in all six seasons since QB Patrick Mahomes took over.
• Here’s where Kansas City has ranked in total WR PPR points under Mahomes:
  • 2018 - 8th
  • 2019 - 12th
  • 2020 - 8th
  • 2021 - 10th
  • 2022 - 15th
  • 2023 - 20th