Jermaine Burton - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Burton is a high-upside player in a high-upside offense. The biggest challenge will be target share. Bet on him being an inconsistent target collector and fantasy producer this year. But there’s handcuff upside in case of an injury to either Chase or Higgins. That makes Burton an immediately interesting bench stash. The longer-term uncertainty with Higgins (on franchise tag for 2024) adds upside to Burton for 2025 and beyond in dynasty.

What We Learned Last Year

• Burton wrapped up a four-year college run that found him ranking among his team’s top 3 in receiving yards every year.
• He began with two seasons at Georgia, ranking third and then second in yards. Burton then transferred to Alabama for two more years and led each team in yards.
• He never ranked higher than second in receptions, operating primarily as a downfield target.
  • Burton averaged 18.0 yards per catch for his career, topping out at 20.5 per catch for last year’s Crimson Tide.
• Burton also scored TDs efficiently, reaching the end zone on 16.7% of his career receptions. That included dominating last year’s Tide in TDs, claiming 34.8% of the team’s total scoring catches.
• Burton spent 25.7% of his college pass snaps in the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. He peaked at 39.3% in 2022 but dipped back to 19.9% last year.
  • When asked if Burton could play inside just after the team drafted him, new OC Dan Pitcher said he “absolutely” could – adding that Burton’s a “complete player.”
• The Bengals drafted Burton in Round 3 as the 13th WR off the board. Many posited that he likely would have gone earlier if not for off-field questions that included striking a woman amid Tennessee fans rushing the field after a 2022 game.

What to Expect in 2024

• The biggest question for Burton’s immediate role will be how he fits with the rest of the WR corps.
• The Bengals let slot WR Tyler Boyd walk in free agency, even though he landed only a smallish, one-year deal with the Titans. That signals the team was ready for some level of change in that area.
  • None among Burton, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins has been a frequent slot player. Chase hasn’t reached 24% slot use in a season to date. Higgins has spent just 20.9% of his NFL pass snaps in the slot; less than 18% each of the past two years.
  • Will Cincinnati make these the top 3 wideouts and simply rotate them, with none running predominantly from the inside?
  • Among returnees, neither Trenton Irwin nor Andrei Iosivas brings much slot history. Charlie Jones, a 2023 fourth-rounder, could fit there but has yet to generate much buzz as a potential starter.
• Newly signed TE Mike Gesicki has been more WR than TE for his career and could be a key slot player this season as well. Last year’s Bengals ran 3-WR sets at the league’s third-highest rate, according to nfelo. Whether coaches view Gesicki as a WR or TE in such setups could affect Burton’s playing time.
• With Chase and Higgins back, and Burton extremely different from Boyd in play style, we don’t have much precedent by which to gauge Burton’s 2024 fantasy-scoring potential.
  • His ability to both make deep plays and generate yards after the catch matches well with the talented WR corps and efficient QB.