Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Hurts has finished as a top-three fantasy QB in back-to-back seasons.

He remains squarely in his prime at 26. And there’s optimism he can post a bounce-back passing performance with better health.

Returning A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, the fourth-year QB remains an elite fantasy play.

What We Learned Last Year

• Hurts battled through an early-season knee issue.
  • He also suffered a Week 18 finger injury – it “popped out,” per Hurts.
• Watching Hurts, he wasn’t near 100%.
  • While his scramble rate stayed roughly the same compared to 2022, he averaged 35.5 rushing yards per game – down from 51.
  • Fantasy production was buoyed by 15 rushing TDs, including 13 from inside the five yard-line.
• Overall, Hurts finished as the fantasy QB2 behind Josh Allen.
  • The Eagle finished as a top-six QB 11 times. He finished worse than QB12 on only three occasions.
• The A.J. Brown-DeVonta Smith duo combined to miss only one game – Week 18. Yet Hurts’ passing numbers dipped.
  • His 7.2 yards per attempt, 75.8% adjusted completion rate, 4.3% TD rate, and 2.8% INT rate all marked declines from 2022.
  • He hit 300 yards four times…and was held under 200 in seven weeks.
  • This unit really hit a wall over the second half, leading to the firing of first-year OC Brian Johnson.

What to Expect in 2024

• Philadelphia made a splash at OC, hiring former Chargers and Cowboys OC Kellen Moore.
  • Moore garnered HC interviews this cycle.
  • The '23 Chargers ranked 18th in total yards and 21st in points. But note the Chargers’ awful injury situation (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler each missed multiple games).
  • Moore’s expected to bring more pre-snap motion and formation diversity. Last year, Philly ranked last in pre-snap motion usage (10.9%).
  • Overall, we’re not expecting a drastic shift in run/pass split.
• A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith return as one of the NFL’s top WR duos.
  • Philly returns TE Dallas Goedert but remains without a difference-making WR3. Candidates include Parris Campbell and rookie Ainias Smith.
• Long-time C Jason Kelce retired.
  • The Eagles enter the season prepared, sliding G Cam Jurgens into the vacant spot.
  • With RT Lane Johnson, LT Jordan Mailata, and LG Landon Dickerson, the line remains in fine shape.
  • The ‘23 Eagles ranked seventh in pass block win rate.
• The “tush push” play that Hurts mastered was not banned by the NFL.
• As of this writing, projections have him at nearly 10 rushing TDs – enough to lead the position.