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Gardner Minshew - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGardner Minshew's Basic Stats

Gardner Minshew
ADP: N/A
Bye: 10
Experience: 5
Age: 28.4
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.97

SPARQx (Rank): 87.30 (39%)
Burst Score (Rank): 116.60 (75%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.59 (39%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 54.00 (37%)

Gardner Minshew's Weekly Outlook

Week 9 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
238.6 1.23 0.8 6.6 14.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
100.6 0.5 0.3 3 6

Gardner Minshew's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#32 Quarterback

136 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 207.3/328.3 2259.2 11.96 7 23.1 65.8 3

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGardner Minshew's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Minshew signed a two-year, $25 million contract with the Raiders in free agency that makes him the favorite for the starting job. He’ll need to fend off QB Aidan O’Connell, who’s coming off a respectable rookie season.

Minshew again proved capable last year of keeping an NFL offense on track. But he doesn’t offer much fantasy upside.

Even with a nice trio of weapons in WR Davante Adams, WR Jakobi Meyers, and TE Brock Bowers, Minshew is unlikely to ascend beyond lower-end QB2 status.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Minshew opened last season as the Colts’ backup but wound up playing in 16 games and making 13 starts due to Anthony Richardson injuries.
  • Across those 13 starts, Minshew averaged:
    • 229 passing yards
    • 1.1 passing TDs
    • 0.7 INTs
    • 7.4 rushing yards
    • 0.2 rushing TDs
  • His fantasy-scoring average in those 13 starts would have ranked 28th among QBs on the season.
  • Minshew had three top-10 scoring weeks but failed to crack the top-15 QBs in any of his other 10 starts.
  • Among 45 qualifying QBs, Minshew ranked:
    • 33rd in Pro Football Focus passing grade
    • 33rd in NFL Next Gen Stats’ completion rate over expected

What to Expect in 2024

  • Minshew hit free agency this offseason and inked a two-year, $25 million contract with $15 million guaranteed with the Raiders. That’s certainly not a “starter’s contract” – but it’s a bit more than most backups make.
  • Minshew will compete for Vegas’ starting job with Aidan O’Connell.
    • O’Connell was a fourth-round pick in last year’s draft.
    • He made 10 rookie-year starts, averaging 214 passing yards and 1.1 TDs.
    • O’Connell beat Minshew in Pro Football Focus passing grade last year, ranking 29th among 45 qualifiers. Minshew edged O’Connell in completion rate over expected.
  • After a deal with Kliff Kingsbury fell through, the Raiders hired Luke Getsy as their new OC in February.
    • Getsy spent the last two years as Bears OC, where Chicago ranked 28th and 20th in total yards and 23rd and 18th in points.
    • The Bears ranked 32nd in pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022; 31st in pass rate and 27th in PROE last year.
    • Those offenses were predominantly quarterbacked by Justin Fields, which undoubtedly skewed the offense toward the run. We’re projecting a more balanced attack from Getsy in Vegas. It’s worth noting that he was the Packers’ QB coach and passing-game coordinator before his stint with the Bears.
  • Antonio Pierce returns as HC after taking over for the final nine games of last year. The Raiders ran it a bit more under Pierce than they did under previous HC Josh McDaniels.
    • Vegas went from a 61.2% pass rate in eight games under McDaniels to 57.3% pass under Pierce.
    • The Raiders registered a -1% Pass Rate Over Expected under McDaniels vs. -3% under Pierce.
  • The Raiders used the 13th overall pick of this year’s draft on TE Brock Bowers. WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers return to give Vegas a strong trio of pass-catchers.

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Aidan O'Connell, QB LVR

12:18pm EDT 10/21/24

Aidan O'Connell Expected To Miss 4-6 Weeks

Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with his broken thumb, according to NFL Network. He'll be placed on IR but should be able to return this season. Vegas will now turn back to QB Gardner Minshew, who's completed 65.5% of his passes at 6.7 yards per attempt with four TDs and eight INTs this season. Consider it a lateral move for the Raiders offense.

View all Aidan O'Connell Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell is believed to have suffered a broken right thumb in the first half of Sunday's game vs. the Rams, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Considering that's his throwing hand, the injury figures to cost O'Connell multiple weeks. Vegas will turn back to QB Gardner Minshew, who was benched for O'Connell after Week 5.

View all Aidan O'Connell Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell injured his right thumb in the first quarter of Sunday's game vs. the Rams and is questionable to return. He's been replaced by QB Gardner Minshew. We'll update O'Connell's status when we know more.

View all Aidan O'Connell Shark Bites »

Raiders HC Antonio Pierce named QB Aidan O'Connell the starter for this weekend's game vs. the Steelers. O'Connell has already seen action in place of QB Gardner Minshew twice this season, completing 19 of 32 passes (59%) for 176 yards (5.5 YPA), one TD, and one INT. He made 10 starts as a rookie last year, finishing with a 62% completion rate and 6.5 yards per attempt. O'Connell did have his three best games of the season over the final four weeks, ranking 14th among 39 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade during that stretch.

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Raiders QB Gardner Minshew was benched near the end of the third quarter of Sunday's game vs. the Broncos. It's the second time he's been yanked this season. Minshew completed 12 of 17 passes for 137 yards, one TD, and two INTs, leading Vegas to just 10 points. We'll see how QB Aidan O'Connell fares the rest of the way and what the Raiders do at QB moving forward. It'll continue to be a situation to avoid in fantasy lineups.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Gardner Minshew, QB LVR
Dynasty MVP -36.5
Position Rank #37 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
242
390
650
Dynasty Write-up
In March, Minshew signed a 2-year deal with $15 million in guarantees. He beat out Aiden O'Connell for the Week 1 job, but there's no long-term value to chase here.
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