Gardner Minshew - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Minshew signed a two-year, $25 million contract with the Raiders in free agency that makes him the favorite for the starting job. He’ll need to fend off QB Aidan O’Connell, who’s coming off a respectable rookie season.

Minshew again proved capable last year of keeping an NFL offense on track. But he doesn’t offer much fantasy upside.

Even with a nice trio of weapons in WR Davante Adams, WR Jakobi Meyers, and TE Brock Bowers, Minshew is unlikely to ascend beyond lower-end QB2 status.

What We Learned Last Year

• Minshew opened last season as the Colts’ backup but wound up playing in 16 games and making 13 starts due to Anthony Richardson injuries.
• Across those 13 starts, Minshew averaged:
  • 229 passing yards
  • 1.1 passing TDs
  • 0.7 INTs
  • 7.4 rushing yards
  • 0.2 rushing TDs
• His fantasy-scoring average in those 13 starts would have ranked 28th among QBs on the season.
• Minshew had three top-10 scoring weeks but failed to crack the top-15 QBs in any of his other 10 starts.
• Among 45 qualifying QBs, Minshew ranked:
  • 33rd in Pro Football Focus passing grade
  • 33rd in NFL Next Gen Stats’ completion rate over expected

What to Expect in 2024

• Minshew hit free agency this offseason and inked a two-year, $25 million contract with $15 million guaranteed with the Raiders. That’s certainly not a “starter’s contract” – but it’s a bit more than most backups make.
• Minshew will compete for Vegas’ starting job with Aidan O’Connell.
  • O’Connell was a fourth-round pick in last year’s draft.
  • He made 10 rookie-year starts, averaging 214 passing yards and 1.1 TDs.
  • O’Connell beat Minshew in Pro Football Focus passing grade last year, ranking 29th among 45 qualifiers. Minshew edged O’Connell in completion rate over expected.
• After a deal with Kliff Kingsbury fell through, the Raiders hired Luke Getsy as their new OC in February.
  • Getsy spent the last two years as Bears OC, where Chicago ranked 28th and 20th in total yards and 23rd and 18th in points.
  • The Bears ranked 32nd in pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022; 31st in pass rate and 27th in PROE last year.
  • Those offenses were predominantly quarterbacked by Justin Fields, which undoubtedly skewed the offense toward the run. We’re projecting a more balanced attack from Getsy in Vegas. It’s worth noting that he was the Packers’ QB coach and passing-game coordinator before his stint with the Bears.
• Antonio Pierce returns as HC after taking over for the final nine games of last year. The Raiders ran it a bit more under Pierce than they did under previous HC Josh McDaniels.
  • Vegas went from a 61.2% pass rate in eight games under McDaniels to 57.3% pass under Pierce.
  • The Raiders registered a -1% Pass Rate Over Expected under McDaniels vs. -3% under Pierce.
• The Raiders used the 13th overall pick of this year’s draft on TE Brock Bowers. WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers return to give Vegas a strong trio of pass-catchers.