D.J. Moore - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

You can’t ignore the tremendous season Moore just had in – really – what should have been poor circumstances for WR production. But you also can’t ignore that his team has since added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. We’re certainly projecting Moore to still lead the team in targets … but he’s not a lock to do so. Fortunately, the market is wary of him as well. That has Moore going deep in WR2 range of best ball ADP. That’s lower than we rank him, making Moore a solid selection.

What We Learned Last Year

• Moore enjoyed his best season in multiple categories, despite playing with a QB that the Bears have since moved on from.
• He set career highs in the following categories:
  • Receptions (96)
  • Yards (1364)
  • TDs (8)
  • Success rate (59.6%, per Pro Football Reference)
  • Catch rate (70.6%)
  • Yards per route (2.31, per Pro Football Focus)
  • Passer rating on throws his way (119.6)
• Moore also easily set a career high in fantasy points, finishing sixth among WRs in total PPR points and ninth in points per game.
• His weekly finishes were all over the place, however.
  • Moore finished six weeks among the top 12 PPR wideouts, including four among the top 5.
  • Just two other weeks found him higher than 33rd, though.
  • Moore finished outside the top 40 in five of 17 weeks.
• He enjoyed a career-high target share, finishing among the top 15 WRs for the fifth straight season.

What to Expect in 2024

• Moore should remain the best bet to lead the team in targets, but a lot has changed since 2023.
• The Bears booted OC Luke Getsy and imported Shane Waldron from Seattle.
  • Waldron spent the past three years as Seattle’s OC. The Seahawks ranked 10th in neutral-situation pass rate over that span; ninth in expected points added per dropback, according to RBSDM.com.
  • Seattle also ranked among the league’s top 8 in play pace (seconds per snap) each of those seasons, according to FTN.
  • Chicago finished last season 27th in neutral pass rate, 22nd in dropback EPA, and 30th in play pace.
• Chicago drafted QB Caleb Williams first overall and then traded away Justin Fields.
• The Bears drafted WR Rome Odunze ninth overall. They also acquired WR Keenan Allen from the Chargers.
• All of that – plus a big free-agent contract for RB D’Andre Swift – points to more passing in Chicago in 2024. But the WR additions also mean much more of a target challenge for Moore.
• Of course, there’s also a lot of unknown at play here. Rookie QB. Rebuilt WR corps. New backfield leader. New OC who spent his first OC stint under an embedded HC (i.e. there might have been some Pete Carroll influence).
• All of that leaves a lot more guesswork in projecting Chicago’s offense than there is with many other teams.