DeAndre Hopkins - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Hopkins was the epitome of a roller coaster WR last year with some huge performances mixed with complete duds.

Getting a full season with Will Levis should help Hopkins become a little more consistent as Levis locked on early in his starts. Some may be scared away by his age, but 32-year-old WRs still perform at 85% of their peak value.

Adding Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard could pull some targets away, but Hopkins is still underrated as a WR3 with potential for WR1 weeks mixed in.

What We Learned Last Year

• Hopkins’s per-game averages were his best in four years:
  • 8.06 targets
  • 4.41 receptions
  • 62.2 yards
  • 14.1 yards per catch
  • 0.41 TDs
• His per-game statistics improved when Will Levis was playing over Ryan Tannehill:
  • 8.63 targets (7.71)
  • 4.00 receptions (4.85)
  • 67.88 yards (54.71)
  • 16.97 yards per catch (11.28)
  • 0.75 TDs (0.00)
• Hopkins ranked as the PPR WR22 in total fantasy points and the WR30 in points per game.
• Last year, he did not miss a game. It was Hopkins’ first full season in three years.
• He had three top-12 finishes. He also had eight WR37 or worse finishes.
• Hopkin’s target share (28.0%) was its highest in three years (12th best among WRs).
• Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked:
  • 18th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 17th in yards per route run (2.09)
  • 12th in average target depth (14.8).
• Among those same 92 WRs, Hopkins was 85th in average separation yards (2.3), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

• Hopkins enters his second season on the Titans, but his first season with:
  • HC and play caller Brian Callahan
  • OC Nick Holz
• The Titans figure to throw it significantly more under the new coaching staff.
  • Four of Callahan’s five Bengals offenses ranked top-12 in pass rate, including a trio of top-6 finishes.
  • The Titans never finished higher than 24th in pass rate in six seasons under HC Mike Vrabel.
• The Titans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are fourth in highest win total in the AFC South at 6.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit tied for 27th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +15000 on most sportsbooks.
• Hopkins enters his 12th season at 32 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Hopkins’ career and profile will produce at 86% of peak value at age-32.
• Hopkins beat new teammate Calvin Ridley in both yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year.