Cade Otton - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Otton is much more valuable in real football than fantasy.

He saw an increase in TD opportunities last season, but it was never consistent enough to feel confident starting him.

His TD dependency will continue in the Buccaneers’ new offense.

Otton’s lack of upside makes him a low-end TE2 at best.

What We Learned Last Year

• Otton posted a season-long stat line of 47 catches for 455 yards and four TDs on 67 targets.
• His per-game numbers were a slight improvement from his rookie season in 2022:
  • 3.94 targets (4.06)
  • 2.76 receptions (2.63)
  • 26.8 yards (24.4)
  • 0.24 TDs (0.13)
• Otton ranked as the TE20 in PPR fantasy points and TE27 in points per game.
• He missed no games due to injury and has not missed a game in his NFL career.
• Otton had four top-12 finishes. He also had seven TE25 or worse finishes.
• His target share (13.0%) was an increase from 2022 (10.7%)
• Otton led all TEs with 699 pass routes last year but failed to finish higher than 20th in targets, catches, or receiving yards.
• Among 31 TEs with 45+ targets, Otton ranked
  • 28th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 30th in yards per route run (0.94)
  • 19th in average target depth (7.0)
  • 26th in percentage of team air yards (9.23%)

What to Expect in 2024

• Otton enters his third season with the Buccaneers under HC Todd Bowles
• New OC Liam Coen spent last year as the Kentucky OC after coordinating the Rams in 2022.
  • In 2022, the Rams ranked 24th with 531 pass attempts.
• The Buccaneers are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Buccaneers have the 21st-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +5500 on most sportsbooks, second-best in the division.
• Otton enters his third season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average TE with Otton’s career produces at peak value at age-25.