Blake Corum - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Corum got Round 3 draft capital and joins a Sean McVay-led Rams offense that’s produced multiple high-end fantasy RBs.

The problem is that Kyren Williams returns after an excellent 2023 season in terms of both fantasy production and real-life rushing efficiency.

We’re not expecting Corum to push a healthy Williams for the lead job this season. But Williams is one of the biggest injury risks at RB, making the rookie one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football.

What We Learned Last Year

• Corum totaled just 31 touches in a COVID-shortened, six-game freshman season at Michigan. That trailed RB Hassan Haskins but beat future NFL picks Zach Charbonnet and Chris Evans.
• Corum earned a much bigger role alongside Haskins in 2021, finishing second on the Wolverines in carries (144), rushing yards (952), and rushing TDs (11). He averaged 6.6 yards per carry to Haskins’ 4.9 and beat Haskins 24 to 18 in receptions.
• With Haskins off to the NFL in 2022, Corum emerged as a workhorse and turned in a huge season.
  • He carried 247 times for 1,463 yards and 18 TDs.
  • Those marks ranked 13th, 11th, and fifth in the country.
  • Corum led all 168 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus rushing grade. (Bijan Robinson ranked second.)
  • Corum ranked 40th among those 168 RBs in PFF’s Elusive Rating.
• Unfortunately, that big 2022 season ended with a torn meniscus in his left knee in late November that eventually required surgery.
• Corum was ready for the start of his 2023 senior season, though, and was highly productive once again.
  • He racked up 1,245 yards and a nation-leading 27 TDs on 258 carries.
  • But Corum was much less efficient than he was in 2022. He averaged a mediocre (for college) 4.8 yards per carry and ranked 152nd among 157 qualifying RBs in Elusive Rating. He also sunk to 71st in PFF rushing grade.
• Corum also totaled just 27 catches over his final two college seasons.
• He checked into the Combine at 5’8 and 205 pounds.
• He ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash for a 55th-percentile Speed Score.
• Corum registered a 63rd-percentile vertical and an 89th-percentile 3-cone time.
• He earned an 8.29 Relative Athletic Score.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Rams selected Corum with the 83rd overall pick of this year’s draft. He was the third RB off the board.
• He joins a backfield alongside Kyren Williams, who’s coming off a huge 2023 season.
  • Williams led the league with 19.0 carries and 95.3 rushing yards per game.
  • He ranked top-10 among 49 qualifying RBs in yards per carry, missed tackles forced per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade.
  • Williams averaged 4.0 targets and 2.7 catches per game. But he ranked dead last among 43 qualifying RBs in both yards per route run and PFF receiving grade.
• Rams GM Les Snead suggested shortly after the draft that the Corum selection was to help keep Williams fresh.
  • "It's a tough league; it's a 17-game season plus playoffs, might go to 18 games one day," Snead said. "So we always felt like we needed to have as many quality runners as possible so we don't just totally run down Kyren, and we have one or two, or even three guys that can contribute, keep everyone fresh, and let's go and try to impose our will."
• When asked about the Corum selection, HC Sean McVay spent most of his response pumping up Williams.
  • “One of the things that jumped off is there’s a lot of traits that reminded me of Kyren Williams,” McVay said of Corum. “Obviously I love Kyren and he’s been so important, and just the human being, but then also when you just look at the way he works at it, the production and the things that he was able to bring to our offense last year, and even really some of the things that he worked through his rookie year. I think there’s a lot of similarities.”
• McVay has a lengthy history of leaning on one RB. He’s produced a top-2 RB in PPR points per game in three of his seven seasons as Rams HC and a top-21 RB in five of seven seasons.
• Williams is one of the biggest injury risks at RB.
  • On top of the ankle injury that cost him four games last year, he also hurt his hip in Week 4 and broke a bone in his hand in the Wild Card loss to the Lions.
  • Williams broke his foot in 2022 OTAs and then suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 1.
  • He missed OTAs this spring with what McVay called a "foot issue.”
  • Our Injury Predictor gives Williams an 88.7% chance of injury this season (fourth-highest among RBs) and 3.48 projected games missed (most among RBs).
• The big question with Corum is whether he can rediscover his 2022 form. It’s certainly possible that his November 2022 knee injury was a factor in his diminished efficiency in 2023.