Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Robinson escapes an Arthur Smith offense where he was underutilized and is now in an offense that figures to lean heavily on its primary RB.

Upgrading at QB this offseason should also provide more scoring opportunities for Robinson in the red zone and continue his use as a receiver out of the backfield.

His first-round ADP is appropriate for his talent and we have him slotted similarly in our 2024 RB rankings.

Robinson’s volume and talent solidify him as a consistent RB1 producer with potential to be the highest-scoring RB this season.

What We Learned Last Year

• Robinson’s 1,463 total yards ranked sixth among RBs. His 51 catches ranked 10th.
• He did not miss any games due to injury.
• Robinson ranked 14th among RBs in PPR points (220.2) and 16th in points per game (10.6).
  • He finished RB12 or better six times. He recorded six games between RB13 and RB24.
• He ranked 35th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 43.5%.
• He played 68% of the Falcon’s offensive snaps last season. In those 16 games, he averaged:
  • 12.7 carries
  • 59.25 rushing yards
  • 0.25 rushing TDs
  • 4.9 targets (16.5% share)
  • 3.2 catches
  • 24 receiving yards
  • 0.19 receiving TDs
• Robinson was a very effective runner as a rookie. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
  • 28th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
  • 13th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
  • 12th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
• He showed promise in receiving metrics as well. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, Robinson ranked:
  • 25th in PFF receiving grade
  • 20th in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

• Robinson will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
  • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
  • While Robinson was on staff, the Rams averaged 456.6 rushes per season.
  • The primary RB had 47.17% of the rushing attempts during that time.
• Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and will provide a significant QB upgrade.
  • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Desmond Ridder (53.2) and Taylor Heinicke (48.5)
• The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
• Robinson enters his 2nd season at age-22. According to our aging curve research, a RB with Robinson’s profile produces at 94% of his peak value at 22.