Rashee Rice - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

The big question with Rice is when we’ll see him on the field. He’s expected to get a multi-game suspension for his involvement in a late-March street-racing accident that left four people injured.

When he does play, Rice will face increased target competition after the Chiefs added WRs Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy.

Rice was excellent as a rookie last year, though, and projects to lead this WR corps in targets.

Until we know how long he’ll be suspended, consider him a risk/reward pick in WR3 territory of fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Rice finished his 2023 rookie season with 79 catches for 938 yards and seven TDs in 16 games. He sat out a meaningless regular-season finale.
• He ranked 27th among WRs in PPR points per game; 32nd in non-PPR.
• Rice was a part-time player for a little over half of the season, running a route on 45% of Chiefs pass plays through Week 11.
• He spiked to a 79% route rate from Week 12 to 17.
• Over that six-game span, Rice averaged:
  • 9.3 targets (25.2% share)
  • 7.2 catches
  • 86.3 yards
  • 0.5 TDs
• He ranked fourth among WRs in PPR points over that span; 8th in non-PPR.
• Rice remained busy in Kansas City’s four playoff games, averaging:
  • 8.3 targets (22.1% share)
  • 6.5 catches
  • 65.5 yards
  • 0.25 TDs
• Rice’s 85.1 Pro Football Focus receiving grade ranked 12th among 80 WRs with 50+ targets – and tied Puka Nacua for first among 14 rookie WRs with 50+ targets.
• Rice averaged 2.39 yards per route, which ranked 10th among those 80 WRs and second among the 14 rookies.
  • Rice’s yards per route was the sixth best mark from a rookie over the past five seasons, behind only Nacua, Chris Olave, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown.
• Rice was primarily a short-range target last year.
  • His 5.2-yard average target depth ranked dead last among the 80 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • Only six of his targets (6.6%) came 20+ yards downfield. He caught just one of them.
  • Rice saw 24 screen targets – fourth most among WRs.
• Rice was excellent after the catch.
  • His 8.3 yards-after-catch average ranked second among 80 qualifying WRs.
  • He averaged 1.9 yards over expected after the catch, per Next Gen Stats, which ranked 10th.

What to Expect in 2024

• Rice was involved in a street-racing accident in Dallas in late March that left four people injured. He faces eight charges for the accident. He was also under investigation for allegedly hitting a photographer in a Dallas club in May, although the accuser eventually asked for charges to be dropped.
• ESPN's Adam Schefter wrote in April that Rice “is expected to be disciplined by the NFL, resulting in at least a multi-game suspension.”
• When Rice does hit the field this season, he’ll face stiffer target competition after Kansas City added free-agent WR Marquise Brown and first-round rookie WR Xavier Worthy. Both of those guys are more downfield threats than Rice.
• Rice’s more direct target competition will be with TE Travis Kelce. Like Rice, Kelce registered a very shallow 6.7-yard average target depth last year.
• There’s plenty of receiving production to go around in Kansas City. The Chiefs have ranked top 8 in passing yards and TDs in all six seasons since QB Patrick Mahomes took over.
• Here’s where Kansas City has ranked in total WR PPR points under Mahomes:
  • 2018 - 8th
  • 2019 - 12th
  • 2020 - 8th
  • 2021 - 10th
  • 2022 - 15th
  • 2023 - 20th