MarShawn Lloyd - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

We won’t know before the season starts just what kind of weekly touch count we can expect for Lloyd. But we do know that he’s an exciting athlete who landed in a backfield that favors multiple backs and got drafted early enough to indicate that Green Bay targeted him. That all makes Lloyd an upside stash across fantasy formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• Lloyd arrives with ability as well as question marks.
• The size-speed combo is enticing. Lloyd sports just 14th-percentile height (just under 5’9) but 70th-percentile weight (220 pounds) vs. historical Combine RBs. That squatty build is arguably ideal for an NFL RB … especially if he can also run a 4.46-second 40 time.
  • The combo gives Lloyd a 93rd-percentile speed score.
• He parlayed that into 7.1 yards per carry and 17.8 yards per catch in his lone season at USC, after transferring from South Carolina.
  • Lloyd got off to a slower start with the Gamecocks, averaging just 4.6 yards per rush and logging 196 total touches across two seasons. Injuries and a coaching change both factored in.
• His touch count remained limited at USC – 116 carries, 13 catches over 11 games – but that put him in the lead among Trojans RBs.
• Lloyd reached double-digit carries just four times in his final college season and caught more than one pass in three games.
• He could have stayed one more year (after a medicall redshirt for an ACL tear his true freshman year). But Lloyd entered the draft and joined the Packers as the fourth RB off the board, in Round 3.

What to Expect in 2024

• Here’s what OC Adam Stenavich said in early May about Lloyd: “I would like to get him out there as much as possible. … It’ll be nice to get him the ball in space and just see what he can do. I think he’s gonna add a good explosive element to the offense, for sure.”
• And HC Matt LaFleur: “He definitely can be a weapon out of the backfield,” said LaFleur. “I love all the measurables. He’s a 220-pound back that runs 4.4 and can run routes out of the backfield. I think he could be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.”
• And GM Brian Gutekunst: “He’s got serious speed,” said Gutekunst. “He’s very elusive; he’s got great balance, so he’s a little bit different than some of the backs that we have in our depth chart right now.”
• That all indicates the Packers envision immediate usage for the rookie, even though they paid $12 million per year on a free-agent contract to RB Josh Jacobs and re-signed AJ Dillon.
  • LaFleur’s assessment particularly indicates plans to use Lloyd in the passing game. Of course, he has also indicated this offseason that he sees Jacobs and Dillon as pass-game contributors as well.
• LaFleur has also confirmed that he prefers to deploy more than one RB: “Philosophically, no matter who the runner is, typically, we like to platoon those guys, whether it’s two guys or three guys. I just think it allows the running backs to stay fresh throughout the duration of the season.”
• All five of LaFleur’s seasons at the Packers helm have seen two Packers RBs average more than 10 touches per game.
  • Even when he spent 2018 as Titans OC and had a 24-year-old Derrick Henry, LaFleur gave Henry 13.4 carries and 1.1 targets per game vs. Dion Lewis’ 9.7 carries and 4.2 targets.
• We’re not betting on that level of split between Jacobs and Lloyd. But it’s clear that being RB2 in LaFleur’s offense makes you more than just a handcuff.
• We should learn more about what this year’s split will look like as training camp and the preseason unfold. And given that the expected top 2 in this year’s backfield are both new to the team, the situation figures to require assessment into the regular season.
• It can’t hurt Lloyd’s upside that Jacobs and Dillon are both coming off arguably their worst pro seasons.