Keenan Allen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Allen brings the most proven production among 2024 Bears WRs. But he’s also probably in the worst position of his career for target share. All the unknowns in Chicago makes the offense tough to project. Barring reports that he’s running a clear third among Bears wideouts, though, Allen’s low-WR3 price tag looks like a fine level at which to bet on him. We’re not counting on difference-making upside from there, though.

What We Learned Last Year

• Allen could still do it as of 2023.
• He drew a career-high 11.5 targets per game, falling short of a career-high target total only because he lost the final four games to a heel injury. (There’s no indication that will remain an issue into 2024.)
• Allen’s 11.5 yards per catch crept up 0.1 vs. 2022 and outperformed his 2021 and 2020 rates. Credit an average target depth that was his deepest since 2019.
• Allen’s 8.3 receptions per game were the second-most of his career (trailing 2015), and his 95.6 yards per game set a career high.
• He topped 70% in catch rate for the second straight season and fifth time in his career.
• His 2.36 yards per route (per PFF) were his most since 2017 and the third-most of his career.
• Allen saw slightly less slot usage (59%) vs. the previous two seasons, but still the third-most of his career.
• His Pro Football Focus receiving grade was the third-highest of his career and best since 2018.
• Allen ranked third among WRs in PPR points per game, delivering the highest scoring average of his career.
• He also ranked third in the league in target share (adjusted for missed games).
• The Chargers traded Allen in March for a mere fourth-round pick, after the two sides failed to agree to a contract restructure.

What to Expect in 2024

• Allen has been a target hog through most of his career, but that’ll be tougher on his new team.
• D.J. Moore drew a career-high 28.9% target share in his first Bears season, ranking 10th among WRs. Since then, of course, Chicago’s offense has changed quite a bit. In addition to importing Allen, the Bears:
  • Drafted QB Caleb Williams first overall
  • Drafted WR Rome Odunze ninth overall
  • Replaced OC Luke Getsy with Shane Waldron, who spent the past three years as Seattle’s OC.
  • Signed RB D’Andre Swift for big money in free agency.
  • Signed TE Gerald Everett to a two-year, $12 million deal in free agency.
• Allen almost certainly won’t get close to his 2023 target share. But with a new OC and new QB, we can’t say that he definitely won’t beat Moore in that category.
  • At the same time, we also can’t say that Allen won’t wind up third among Bears WRs in targets.
• The veteran does look like the clearest slot fit. Allen has played 59% or more of his pass snaps in the slot each of the past three years, according to Pro Football Focus.
  • Moore spent 21.6% in there last year. He topped out at 33% as a rookie.
  • Odunze spent 54.7% of his snaps in the slot as a 2021 sophomore. But his other three college seasons all included 17.4% or less slot usage.
• Whether Allen emerges as the No. 2 or 3 WR could matter quite a bit. The Bears figure to run more 3-WR sets than last year, when they ranked 26th (according to nfelo). But Seattle (with Waldron) ranked just 23rd in that category, despite having DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and first-round rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
  • We’ll have to watch for signals on his plan for Chicago’s offense.
  • Waldron went to Seattle from a Rams offense that has been a 3-WR leader under Sean McVay.