Joe Burrow - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

A healthy Burrow remains a strong fantasy play. He performed at a top-8 level during last season’s short span of full strength and should be a good bet for that range in 2024. He’s appropriately priced at current QB7 in best ball ADP. Burrow makes for a good target when he slips beyond that level.

What We Learned Last Year

• Burrow perhaps should have waited longer before returning from his summer calf injury.
  • He strained his right calf in a July 27 practice.
  • He returned August 30 and started the season on time.
  • But he aggravated the injury in Week 2 and did not look like himself through at least the first four weeks.
• Burrow completed 57.6% of his passes over the first four games, averaging just 182 yards and 0.5 TD passes per game.
  • He ran for 3 yards on eight attempts in that span.
• The next five games presented normal Burrow.
  • He completed 74.1% of throws over that span.
  • Burrow averaged 296 yards and 2.4 TDs per game.
  • He added 15.6 yards per game on the ground.
  • Burrow ranked seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game over that span and finished four of five weeks among the top 8.
• Unfortunately, the QB tore a ligament in his right (throwing) wrist in Week 11 and missed the rest of the year. (He was back throwing by spring workouts.)

What to Expect in 2024

• Barring another summer injury, we should get normal Burrow from the start.
• His return to throwing in OTAs says we shouldn’t worry about that wrist being a 2024 issue. Burrow has also said this offseason: “I’m growing and learning how to handle my body” – as in when to push through a minor injury and when to rest it.
• The Bengals lost their No. 2 and 4 players in targets from last season, but that’s not as significant as it might seem.
  • WR Tyler Boyd finished second, thanks to Tee Higgins missing five games. Boyd signed with the Titans on just a one-year deal worth “up to $4.5 million,” so the Bengals certainly could have brought him back if they wanted.
  • The team traded RB Joe Mixon to the Texans (when on the verge of releasing him). Mixon’s 64 targets ranked fourth behind:
    • Ja’Marr Chase (145)
    • Boyd (98)
    • Higgins (76)
• Chase obviously returns. And Cincinnati franchise-tagged Higgins to keep him off the market. The Bengals also drafted WR Jermaine Burton in Round 3 – an upside upgrade over Boyd.
  • Burton arrives as an outside, downfield threat – as opposed to Boyd’s short-range, slot-based game.
  • Burton averaged 18.0 yards per catch across four college seasons split between Georgia and Alabama. He ranked among the top 3 in receiving yards every year and led each of his two Crimson Tide squads in that category.
  • We’ll see exactly what Burton’s rookie-year role will look like, but he adds explosiveness that boosts Burrow’s upside.
• The Bengals also signed TE Mike Gesicki and RB Zack Moss in free agency. Neither is a thrilling addition on his own, but each has proved he can produce at times. Moss figures to be the primary Mixon replacement. Gesicki can assume some of the role Boyd vacated.
• Cincinnati lost OC Brian Callahan to the Titans (HC). We’ll see about any impact from that, but there’s no reason to worry.
  • New OC Dan Pitcher has been on the staff since 2016, three years before HC Zac Taylor arrived. Pitcher has coached Bengals QBs since 2020, Burrow’s rookie year. And Taylor has been the play caller.