Jerry Jeudy - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Jeudy has cracked the top 50 in PPR points per game just once through his four seasons (WR21 in 2022). That’s also the only year he has reached 4.0 receptions per game. So he has given us little reason to be excited. That’s why the market is completely unexcited. And the resulting low-WR5 ADP is the greatest mark in his favor. You don’t need to incorporate Jeudy into your drafting. But his physical ability plus the Browns’ financial commitment gives him clear upside from that range.

What We Learned Last Year

• Jeudy stayed healthier in 2023 than the previous two seasons, losing only Week 1 to a hamstring injury.
• That made his lack of production extra disappointing.
• A year after Jeudy set career highs in yards per target, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade, he saw steep declines in each category.
  • That included a career-low 1.65 yards per route, ranking 44th among 96 WRs with 40+ targets.
  • Jeudy also posted his fewest receptions per game and lowest receiving success rate since his rookie year.
• Jeudy exceeded 3 receptions in a game just four times all year, reached 60 receiving yards four times, and scored only 2 TDs.
• He cracked the top 36 PPR WRs seven times but climbed higher than 29th only once (in Week 18).

What to Expect in 2024

• The Browns clearly weren’t troubled by Jeudy’s 2023 performance.
• Here’s what GM Andrew Berry said after the trade and contract extension: “We feel like we have an individual who’s an elite separator, can play inside and outside, produced in less-than-ideal circumstances and usage … and we feel like he complements our group really nicely.”
• HC Kevin Stefanski echoed the sentiment: “He can win in a variety of ways. … Jerry’s a guy that we’ve spent a lot of time on both as he was coming out and over the past few years. Really like his skill set, like his ability to separate, like his ability to make plays with the football. I mean, he has the speed, the acceleration, the burst to make plays down the field, so we’re excited about the skillset, we’re excited about the person.”
• Jeudy ranked a strong 12th in yards per route at the position in 2022 and a solid 24th in 2021, despite lackluster QB play (Russell Wilson, Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Lock, and Brett Rypien).
• He brings positional versatility, having played 52.5% of his pass snaps in the slot over his Broncos run. That’s more than Elijah Moore (42.5% through three seasons) and much more than Amari Cooper (21.3% career).
  • Jeudy’s versatility plus the $17.5 million annual average of his contract extension clearly makes him a top-2 WR for his new team.
  • Cooper’s current contract that expires after 2024 adds longer-term upside.
• Cleveland still faces questions at QB. Deshaun Watson hasn’t played very well through two partial seasons, though he improved last year over 2022. Watson’s now coming off surgery for a season-ending shoulder injury. His return will bear watching throughout the summer.
• The Browns also refreshed at OC. Ken Dorsey takes over after being fired midway through his second season as Bills OC. Dorsey’s Bills ranked among the league’s most pass-heavy offenses. Buffalo ranked fourth in neutral-situation pass rate over the past two years (including nearly a half-season of new OC Joe Brady leaning much further toward the run). Cleveland ranked 19th over the same stretch.
  • Combine that with Nick Chubb’s recovery from a devastating 2023 knee injury that required multiple surgeries, and it’s not hard to envision at least some more passing volume in 2024.