Jared Goff - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Goff has played well the past two years, especially at home. He returns a strong group of pass catchers that would get a boost if WR Jameson Williams is ready to step up. Goff’s lack of rushing limits the ceiling, and you’ll want to primarily play him at home. But he can be an underrated piece of a QB platoon.

What We Learned Last Year

• Goff tallied seven top-12 finishes in 2023. That’s one more than he produced in 2022 and two more than he had (in 14 games) in 2021, his first season with the Lions.
• Goff finished five of those seven weeks among the top 6 fantasy QBs. Only four QBs delivered more top 6 weeks.
• Four of those top 6 finishes and five of the top 12s came at home, where Goff has historically performed much better since arriving in Detroit.
• Last year found him:
  • Completing 70.1% of passes at home vs. 64.8% on the road
  • Averaging 280.0 yards at home vs. 259.4 on the road
  • Throwing for a 6.8% TD rate at home vs. 3.4% on the road
  • Generating a 107.9 passer rating at home vs. 89.4 on the road
• For the season, Goff posted his highest TD rate since 2018. He reached 67% completions for the third time in four years.
  • He has climbed from 63.4% completions over five seasons with the Rams to 66.5% over three with the Lions.
  • His average target depth has shortened in Detroit. But the yards per pass attempt have stayed close (7.5 with Rams, 7.3 with Lions). And Goff finished each of the past two years at 7.6 after a low start in Detroit (6.6 in 2021).
• Goff tallied the second-best fantasy scoring average of his career last season, ranking 14th at the position in points per game. That trailed only his 2018 with the Rams, when they lost to New England in the Super Bowl.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Lions showed their commitment to Goff by extending him in mid-May. The contract likely locks Goff in at least through 2027.
• Detroit didn’t add anything to the pass offense but expects to get more from WR Jameson Williams in his third season.
  • HC Dan Campbell called Williams the team’s “most improved” player of the offseason in May.
  • Williams might have started that improvement last season. After averaging 5.0 yards per target over his first 11 career games, he climbed to 10.1 over the next 10.
• Goff benefited from the emergence of TE Sam LaPorta and RB Jahmyr Gibbs out of last year’s draft class.
• The Lions retained OC Ben Johnson amid HC interviews. That’s good, because the offense improved with him coordinating over the past two years.
  • Detroit went from 19th in total plays in 2021 (Goff’s first season) to 12th and then second the past two years.
  • The Lions climbed from 25th in points and 22nd in total yards in 2021 to fifth in scoring each of the past two years; fourth and third in yards.
• The offensive efficiency has helped Goff’s production amid a run-leaning approach.
  • The Lions have ranked 25th in neutral-situation pass rate over the past two years. That included No. 25 ranking last season.
• Don’t be surprised if Detroit falls from last year’s No. 9 ranking in pass attempts
  • The passing volume could get boosted, though, if the team trails more than last season’s 12-5 version.
• Goff doesn’t turn 30 until mid-October and should thus be in his prime, according to our historical aging data.