Jakobi Meyers - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Meyers has been a solid target earner over the last four seasons. That includes ranking 28th in targets and 27th in PPR points among WRs last year.

He’ll face tougher target competition in 2024 after the Raiders added rookie TE Brock Bowers. And the team’s QB situation looks shaky with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell.

It’s enough to knock Meyers out of WR3 territory in our rankings. But he looks like a solid value in WR4/5 range.

What We Learned Last Year

• Meyers caught 71 balls for 807 yards and eight TDs in 16 games last year.
• He missed Week 2 with a concussion.
• Meyers finished 27th among WRs in total PPR points; 29th in PPR points per game.
• He was fairly reliable, scoring as a top-36 PPR WR in 10 of his 16 outings. He had four top-12 weeks – the same number as teammate Davante Adams.
• Meyers ranked 34th among WRs in expected PPR points per game.
• His 106 targets ranked 28th among WRs.
• His 19.7% target share in games played ranked 39th at the position.
• Meyers’ target shares over his previous three seasons with the Patriots:
  • 2020 - 29.2%
  • 2021 - 22.0%
  • 2022 - 21.6%
• Meyers scored a career-high eight TDs last year.
• After scoring on just 1.2% of his catches over his first three NFL seasons, he’s now scored on 10.1% of his catches over the last two, including 11.3% last year.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Raiders released QB Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason and signed QB Gardner Minshew. He’ll compete with QB Aidan O’Connell for the starting job.
• Minshew and O’Connell ranked 27th and 25th, respectively, among 33 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade last year.
• Meyers figures to get below-average QB play again this season.
• He’ll face added target competition after the Raiders spent the 13th overall pick of this spring’s draft on TE Brock Bowers.
• WR Davante Adams and TE Michael Mayer, who ranked first and fourth on the team in targets last year, return. RB Josh Jacobs, who finished third in targets, is gone.
• Antonio Pierce returns as HC after taking over for the final nine games of last year. The Raiders ran it a bit more under Pierce than they did under previous HC Josh McDaniels.
  • Vegas went from a 61.2% pass rate in eight games under McDaniels to 57.3% pass under Pierce.
  • The Raiders registered a -1% Pass Rate Over Expected under McDaniels vs. -3% under Pierce.
• Meyers’ production took a hit with the change from McDaniels to Pierce.
  • Per-game averages with McDaniels:
    • 8.1 targets (23.9% share)
    • 5.4 catches
    • 57.7 yards
    • 0.7 TDs
  • Per-game averages with Pierce:
    • 5.4 targets (16.6% share)
    • 3.7 catches
    • 44.8 yards
    • 0.3 TDs
• After a deal with Kliff Kingsbury fell through, the Raiders hired Luke Getsy as their new OC in February.
  • Getsy spent the last two years as Bears OC, where Chicago ranked 28th and 20th in total yards and 23rd and 18th in points.
  • The Bears ranked 32nd in pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022; 31st in pass rate and 27th in PROE last year.
  • Those offenses were predominantly quarterbacked by Justin Fields, which undoubtedly skewed the offense toward the run. We’re projecting a more balanced attack from Getsy in Vegas. It’s worth noting that he was the Packers’ QB coach and passing-game coordinator before his stint with the Bears.