Ezekiel Elliott - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Consider Dallas a best-case landing spot for Elliott.

He joins a backfield looking to replace 307 Tony Pollard touches. Despite some pre-draft rumblings, Dallas passed on adding a RB in the draft.

We’re certainly leary of Elliott’s career trajectory. But if healthy, he should see the volume to at least deliver low-end RB3/FLEX numbers.

What We Learned Last Year

• Elliott signed with New England, but not until August.
• The 29-year-old battled knee issues in recent years but appeared in all 17 games for the Pats.
• Let’s start with the positive. Elliott popped with 65 targets – second most on the team. He led the squad with 51 catches.
  • Zeke averaged just 6.1 yards per catch. Yet he posted his highest yards per route run (1.27) and yards after catch per reception (7.4) since 2018.
• As a rusher, Elliott showed no signs of reversing a decline.
  • Among 36 RBs with 150+ carries, Elliott ranked 28th in EPA per rush, 34th in yards per carry, 31st in yards after contact per attempt, and 34th in success rate.
  • His explosive play rate ranked 48th. His long run? 17 yards.
• Elliott played in one of the league’s worst offenses. New England ranked 32nd in points per game; 30th in yards.
• The bulk of his fantasy production came late in the year with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined.
  • He finished as a top-20 back four times over the final six weeks, including a pair of top-five finishes.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Cowboys brought back Zeke on a one-year deal worth $2 million guaranteed.
• He’ll look to replace a chunk of the 252 carries and 67 targets left by new Titan Tony Pollard.
• Dallas passed on adding an RB in the draft. At least for now, they’ll rely on Zeke, Rico Dowdle, and Royce Freeman.
  • Dowdle was just OK last year as Pollard’s backup. He's still largely an unknown with only 96 career carries.
  • Freeman showed up with a couple of fantasy-worthy lines with the Rams in ‘23.
  • He ultimately totaled 319 yards on 77 carries (4.1 YPC). Freeman added nothing in the receiving game.
• Here’s HC Mike McCarthy’s assessment of the backfield. “We’re a running back by committee (team),” McCarthy said in May. “But I think he’ll [Elliott] definitely play at the level that he’s played at in my time here. I don’t see any drop-off in the way he moves. He’s in good shape. … He has come in here and picked up right where he left off.”
• Dallas should remain one of the league’s top-scoring offenses – a huge boost from Elliott’s environment in 2023.
• This O-line carries some question marks, as two rookies (OT Tyler Guyton and C Cooper Beebe) are likely starters. It’s not a unit we’re concerned about overall, though.