Bo Nix - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Nix is the favorite to win Denver’s Week 1 starting job and should be a good fit in HC Sean Payton’s quick-hitting passing game.

But the rookie figures to pilot a conservative, run-leaning offense with a subpar group of weapons.

Nix should add some rushing production but is unlikely to ascend beyond QB2 status this season. He’s only worth drafting in superflex leagues and 1-QB leagues of 14+ teams.

What We Learned Last Year

• Nix was a five-star recruit and the No. 1 dual-threat QB in the 2019 class.
• He made 61 starts across five college seasons – three at Auburn and two at Oregon.
• Nix’s numbers at Auburn were not very good:
  • 59.4% completion rate
  • 6.9 yards per attempt
  • 39 TDs vs. 16 INTs
• He dealt with a poor supporting cast and questionable coaching at Auburn. But Nix never ranked better than 52nd in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
• He was much better at Oregon.
  • Nix threw for 3,593 yards with 29 TDs and seven INTs on a 71.9% completion rate and 8.8 yards per attempt in 2022.
  • Then he set new career highs last year with:
    • 4,508 yards
    • 45 TDs (vs. just three INTs)
    • 77.4% completion rate
    • 9.6 yards per attempt
• Nix led all QBs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 passing grades and finished third in Heisman voting.
• He thrived in an Oregon offense designed to get the ball out of his hands quickly.
  • Nix’s 2.44-second average time to throw last year was fourth fastest in the FBS.
  • His 6.8-yard average target depth was third lowest.
  • Just 10.9% of Nix’s passes traveled 20+ yards downfield – the 13th lowest rate among 147 qualifiers.
• Nix was good when he did throw deep, though. Among those 147 qualifiers, he ranked sixth in completion rate, 14th in passer rating, and fifth in PFF passing grade on throws of 20+ yards.
• Nix also ran for 1,613 yards and 38 TDs across his five college seasons.
  • If we omit the yardage deducted for sacks by the NCAA, he averaged 390.4 rushing yards per season.
• The Broncos made Nix the 12th overall pick of this year’s draft. He was the fifth QB off the board, behind Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy.
• Multiple sources reported post-draft that Denver was the only team with a first-round grade on Nix.

What to Expect in 2024

• With tons of college experience, first-round draft capital, and weak competition (Zach Wilson, Jarrett Stidham), Nix is the favorite to win Denver’s Week 1 starting job.
• Broncos GM George Paton said shortly after the draft that Nix is "game-ready" to start as a rookie.
• He’ll be operating in a Sean Payton offense that should be a good fit for his skill set. Payton has historically deployed a short, quick-hitting passing game. (Think Drew Brees.)
• Denver was not a good environment for passing production in Payton’s first season at the helm. The 2023 Broncos ranked:
  • 29th in plays
  • 24th in pass rate
  • 27th in pass attempts
• Russell Wilson ranked 16th among QBs in fantasy points per game as Denver’s starter last year.
• We’re projecting the Broncos to be a conservative, run-leaning offense again in 2024.
• Denver traded away WR Jerry Jeudy this offseason and added WRs Troy Franklin and Josh Reynolds. WRs Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims, along with TEs Greg Dulcich and Adam Trautman, return from last year’s group. It’s an underwhelming group of pass-catchers.