Kyle Pitts Injury History & Updates

Bottom Line

The optimism is back for Pitts to finally perform up to his talent level after disappointing over the past two seasons.

Ditching the Arthur Smith offense for a more modern one that utilizes its talent is a welcome change. In addition, the massive QB upgrade to Kirk Cousins gives Pitts the best chance to hit his ceiling.

He is a year and a half removed from MCL and PCL surgery, coming into this season the healthiest of his career.

Pitts is an upside TE1 with a low floor and high ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year

• Pitts’ per-game receiving statistics were in line with his 2022 season:
  • 5.1 targets (down from 5.8)
  • 3 receptions (up from 2.8)
  • 37.6 yards (up from 35.6)
  • 12.5 yards per catch (down from 12.7)
  • 0.21 TDs per game (up from 0.2)
• Pitts ranked as the PPR TE14 in total fantasy points (132.6) and in points per game (5.1).
• He played all 17 games despite getting MCL and PCL surgery in November 2022.
• He had five top-12 finishes. He also had five TE25 or worse finishes.
• Pitts' target share of 18.4% ranked 13th among TEs. It was also the lowest of his career.
• Among 33 TEs with at least 40+ targets, Pitts ranked:
  • 11th in PFF receiving grade
  • Third lowest in-line snap percentage of that group (14.9%)
  • Highest average target depth among those TEs at 12.0 yards.

What to Expect in 2024

• Pitts will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
  • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
  • Under Robinson, the Rams averaged 628 passes per season.
• Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and will provide a significant QB upgrade
  • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Desmond Ridder (53.2) and Taylor Heinicke (48.5)
• The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
• Pitts enters his 4th season at 23 years old. According to our aging curve research, a player with Pitts' career produces 98% of his peak value at age-23.