Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin looks like a value by ADP right now, especially at his WR29 price on Underdog Fantasy. He does sit higher than that in our fantasy football rankings. But he has some issues to overcome. Godwin rebounded from his 2021 ACL tear to finish 18th in PPR points per game at the position last year. That followed a No. 8 finish. But he -- and the rest of the Bucs receivers -- benefited from huge passing volume with Tom Brady. Tampa Bay led the league in pass attempts each of the past two seasons and has ranked among the league leaders throughout Godwin's six seasons. That volume figures to come down with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask replacing Brady. Godwin finished each of the past three years ranked 31st or worse in target share among WRs. If that doesn't rebound, he'd feel a volume drop even more. Godwin is also coming off career lows in yards per catch (9.8), yards per target (7.2), and yards per route (1.73). That's no surprise, given the December ACL tear that closed 2021. We're betting on some rebound for Godwin on that front. Though the QB switch could also challenge the WR's efficiency. Godwin looks like a decent bet at modest ADP. Just don't treat him like a lock for big 2023 fantasy points.
Former Vikings GM -- and current CBS analyst -- Rick Spielman visited Buccaneers minicamp in June and came away expecting QB Baker Mayfield to be the starter. "Even though they say it's an open competition, the feel that I got, there's no question Baker will be the starting quarterback," Spielman said on a CBS podcast. That's certainly the general assumption and how we have Bucs passers in our QB rankings. But Mayfield would get at least a slight boost as the sure starter. And his current Underdog Fantasy superflex ADP has him at QB32, last among starters. Especially if you combine him with WRs Chris Godwin and/or Mike Evans -- or even RB Rachaad White, who caught 50 passes as a rookie -- there's upside for Mayfield from that starting point. Check out our superflex rankings for more.
You probably already know that Buccaneers WR Mike Evans got a large fantasy boost from his monster Week 17 outing last year: 10 catches, 207 yards, 3 TDs. That game accounted for 21.6% of his PPR scoring for the season. And his 8-103-2 line in Week 4 against the Chiefs accounted for another 13.4%. Evans' downfield nature has always made him a volatile weekly scorer, but last year delivered fewer of the high-end fantasy lines. Evans posted four top-12 weeks in 2020, five in 2021, and then just three last year. He followed eight top-24 weeks in 2020 with 10 in 2021 but only five last season. And now comes a QB downgrade from Tom Brady to whomever wins the Baker Mayfield-Kyle Trask showdown. Even at Evans' depressed ADP, it has been tough to like him in drafts. See where he sits in our 2023 fantasy football rankings, and read more about why you should be wary.
Greg Auman of Fox Sports believes the Bucs might use more pre-snap motion and shifting in 2023. Tampa Bay utilized motion at the snap on only 7.5% of its plays last year — 2nd fewest league-wide, per ESPN. New OC Dave Canales comes from a Seattle offense that ranked 14th (17.7%) in the same category. "I would say it's unpredictable," QB Kyle Trask said of the new approach. "You don't know what you're going to get. We can come at you in different ways, then throw it over the top of your head. You just never know. You saw the success they had in Seattle [with Canales] with that philosophy, and I think you add our weapons into that, we could be very dangerous. I'm really excited to see how this plays out in the fall.” Baker Mayfield is the favorite to start Week 1. But we remain skeptical of his fantasy value outside of superflex leagues.
Bucs TE Cade Otton shared some insight on new OC Dave Canales’ offense. “I think it’s a really good opportunity for us to get the ball in our hands,” Otton said. “I think easy completions is a big thing in this offense – making it easy on the quarterback. Then for us tight ends, getting the ball early in the down and trying to make plays down the field. So that’s a really exciting opportunity for us. You know they’re going to give us opportunities to do it, and then it is up to us to make the play and earn trust from the quarterbacks and the coaches.” Otton recorded 42-391-2 as a Round 4 rookie alongside Tom Brady. The 24-year-old won't be on the streaming radar to begin next season.
Giants WR Sterling Shepard is running routes in 7-on-7 work, according to insider Art Stapleton. It's good progress as Shepard works back from a torn left ACL suffered on September 26. He re-signed with the Giants in March on a 1-year deal worth just $1.3 million with $0 guaranteed. So Shepard isn't even a lock to make the final roster -- although Stapleton says, "I think the speculation on here about Shep not making the team is very premature. Would not count him out." We'll see, but Shepard isn't worth a pick in early best-ball drafts.
Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin believes he’s nearly back at pre-injury form. Recall that he suffered a torn ACL in December, 2021. "I think I'm very close to it [100%],” Godwin told the Bucs’ official site. "I feel like a lot of my explosion is coming back. I feel very comfortable with the things that I'm working on. It feels really good to be able to have the opportunity to work on my skill development this offseason, as opposed to just working to rehab an injury.” Godwin made it back for Week 1 of last season but later missed time with a hamstring strain. Still, the veteran set a team record with 104 catches. QB concerns add risk, but Godwin’s coming at a fair, WR3 price in early drafts.
RB Sean Tucker has signed with the Buccaneers as an undrafted free agent. We heard earlier this week that Tucker was flagged for a heart issue, which has seemingly been confirmed by him going undrafted. We’ll keep an eye on that situation, but this is at least a decent landing spot with Tampa’s RB corps consisting of Rachaad White, Chase Edmonds, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. For a guy standing 5’9, and 207 pounds, Tucker plays like a track runner and isn’t afraid to confront potential tacklers in tight running lanes. Tucker’s effectiveness is a bit of a mixed bag, but his sophomore season at Syracuse in 2021 showed fantasy managers what he’s capable of at his best. Tucker led the ACC with 1,496 rushing yards that year, finishing 4th among all NCAA RBs with 44 runs of 10+ yards.
The Buccaneers grabbed Nebraska WR Trey Palmer in Round 6 of the NFL Draft. Palmer took a while to get going, breaking out as a 21-year-old fourth-year player after transferring from LSU. Last season, though, found him drawing 33% of Nebraska's targets, 35% of receptions, 39% of yardage, and 53% of TDs. He set school records for single-season and single-game receiving yards and was a productive returner at LSU. Palmer ran the fastest 40 time among WRs at the Scouting Combine (4.33 seconds) and was a state sprinting champ in high school. He hits the NFL raw as a route runner but will have time to develop behind Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage. There's intriguing upside here, but the sixth-round draft capital makes Palmer only a late-round rookie-draft consideration.
The Buccaneers selected DT Calijah Kancey in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Kancey enjoyed a highly productive three years at Pittsburgh. He averaged 0.93 tackles for loss per game for his career; 1.32 per game for his final season. Kancey delivered a 99th-percentile 40 time at the Scouting Combine. He’s minuscule for the position by historical standards, though: 6’1, 281 pounds, with 1st-percentile arm length. We’re not betting against the upside, but those measurements make Kancey risky. Playing next to block-eating DT Vita Vea should help. See where we valued Kancey in our pre-draft IDP rookie rankings.
Per Bob McGinn, formerly of The Athletic, Syracuse RB Sean Tucker was found to have "an ongoing heart issue" when he was evaluated in Indianapolis ahead of the NFL Combine in February. An anonymous executive said, "This sounds like it's not going away ... essentially, he could be done." Tucker didn't participate in drills at the Combine due to an undisclosed medical issue and notably recorded and released his independent pro day video via social media last month. There hasn't been much clarity surrounding the nature of this ailment until recently. We'll see how much validity this report has as time evolves. Tucker is set to hold an official pro day for NFL teams at Syracuse on Monday. Be sure to check back for updates tomorrow, but in the meantime, take a look at our evaluation of the 21-year-old's profile.
The Bucs signed RB Chase Edmonds to a one-year deal. It's for the veteran minimum, according to Fox Sports' Greg Auman, which means Edmonds will make about $1.1 million in 2023. The soon-to-be 27-year-old has a pair of 40+ catch seasons on his resume but has yet to top 116 carries or 592 rushing yards in a season. He split his 2022 between Miami and Denver, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and ranking 59th among 67 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus' rushing grades. Edmonds looks like just an insurance policy on RB Rachaad White, who figures to get first crack at Tampa's lead job this season.
The Buccaneers have reached a one-year, $8.5 million deal with QB Baker Mayfield, according to multiple reports. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport had previously talked about the Bucs bringing in Mayfield to compete with former second-round pick Kyle Trask for the starting job. We'd bet on Mayfield winning that competition. But the contract shows that they're not banking on him as a starter. Taylor Heinicke, for example, got a two-year contract worth up to $10 million a year from the Falcons. Mayfield played his way out of Carolina after his Cleveland exit. He gained some praise for the brief Rams stint but compiled just 6.6 yards per pass attempt and a 3.1% TD rate there. Mayfield is far from a lock for any meaningful production going forward. But he's interesting as a QB3 pick late in best ball drafts right now, especially when paired with Tampa Bay WRs Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, or Russell Gage. Gage has been going especially late. So you can potentially pair him with Mayfield using just your final two picks. Not much risk at that point.
The Giants have agreed to a one-year deal with WR Sterling Shepard ahead of free agency. Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 in Houston reports that Shepard will make just $1.317 million. That's not enough to guarantee any significant role on offense. Our guess is that Shepard (and his representation) didn't expect to find much of a market. So he elected to stick with the familiar team on a "prove it" deal. He's not more than an end-of-draft flyer for best ball formats at the moment -- and an unexciting option even there.
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport says trying to sign QB Baker Mayfield is "certainly going to be a priority" for the Buccaneers in free agency. Rapoport says that would set up a training-camp competition between Mayfield and Kyle Trask, but we'd certainly bet on Mayfield in that scenario. Mayfield is going very late in best ball ADP right now. So go ahead and toss him onto some rosters with WRs Chris Godwin and/or Mike Evans -- and/or Russell Gage. The Gage-Mayfield pairing, in particular, can be had over the final few rounds of your draft. That means very little risk.
The Broncos released RB Chase Edmonds, saving $5.9 million against the 2023 salary cap. A colossal free-agent bust for the Dolphins last year, Edmonds mustered just 2.9 yards per carry on 42 attempts before being traded to Denver as part of the Bradley Chubb deal in November. Edmonds averaged 4.8 yards on 26 attempts across 5 games for the Broncos -- 2 before hurting his ankle and 3 after. Edmonds turns just 27 in April but seems headed for a secondary role in 2023. We'll see where he lands, but consider Edmonds no more than a late-round flier in early best-ball drafts.
Syracuse RB Sean Tucker opted out of NFL Combine participation on Sunday. The speedster weighed in at 5’9 and 207 pounds. We’ll have an opportunity to see him put his skills on display at Syracuse’s pro day scheduled for March 20th. Stay tuned for our Dynasty Fantasy Football Value profile of Tucker coming later this month.
Nebraska WR Trey Palmer led all receivers at the NFL Scouting Combine with a 4.33-second 40-yard dash (officially). Palmer collected just 41 total receptions over his first three college seasons, playing at LSU. He also averaged a mere 11.2 yards per catch. Palmer then snared 71 receptions for 1,043 yards and 9 TDs after transferring to Nebraska for 2022. He also averaged a career-high 14.7 yards per catch, 3.2 ahead of his previous best. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein calls Palmer a "raw" route runner. But the athletic ability of a former five-star recruit clearly remains. We'll have much more on Palmer as part of our upcoming Dynasty Fantasy Football Value series on the entire rookie class.
The Bucs are hiring Dave Canales as their new OC. The 41-year-old has spent the past 13 seasons working under Pete Carroll, first at USC and then with Seattle. Canales most recently served as Seahawks QBs coach, helping QB Geno Smith to a career year. But Canales' only experience as an offensive coordinator came at Carson High School in California in 2004 and 2005. He's a total wild card as we start to project what this Bucs offense will look like in 2023. We're also, of course, still waiting to see what Tampa does at QB. Kyle Trask is the only QB currently on the roster.
The Buccaneers are expected to fire OC Byron Leftwich, according to Pewter Report. Just a year ago, Tampa Bay was coming off 3 straight years among the league's top 3 in scoring and Leftwich was getting interviews for HC gigs elsewhere. But the 2022 Bucs ranked just 25th in points, 15th in yards and 16th in Football Outsiders offensive DVOA (down from 1st in 2021). We'd bet on Leftwich getting an opportunity elsewhere. The Bucs, meanwhile, seem likely to have a QB question to answer, with Tom Brady's contract up.
Update: Greg Auman of FOX Sports reports that HC Todd Bowles says no decision has been made yet on Leftwich's job status.
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