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Wild Card Round DraftKings Tournament Picks

Stacks

Jayden Daniels ($7,500) + Terry McLaurin ($6,500) + Zach Ertz ($4,300)

Commanders at Buccaneers carries the highest total of the weekend (50.5) and is the game I’ll be building most tournament teams around.

Baker Mayfield stacks are certainly viable, but I prefer the Daniels side of this game – with RB Bucky Irving ($7,000) as a runback.

The Commanders have been a run-funnel defense this season, ranking 32nd in pass rate over expected against. They sit 26th in run defense DVOA and 32nd in adjusted yards before contact allowed per carry.

It’s a smash matchup for Irving, who emerged as Tampa Bay’s clear lead back down the stretch. He’s averaged 18.3 carries and 4.0 targets over the last three games.

On the other side of this game, Daniels gets a Bucs defense that ranks first in pass rate over expected against. They sit sixth in run defense DVOA but just 23rd in pass defense DVOA.

This should be a pass-leaning game plan from Washington. 

And when the Commanders do run, Daniels figures to be a big factor. We saw the Commanders unleash the rookie in the playoff-clinching Week 17 win over the Falcons. Daniels ran 16 times for a season-high 127 yards in that one. We could get similar usage this weekend in a win-or-go-home game.

I typically don’t double stack running QBs like Daniels. But it’s much more viable on a six-game slate, with a significantly smaller player pool.

McLaurin has been Washington’s big-play threat and TD scorer all season, averaging 13.4 yards per catch with 13 TDs. He topped 20 DK points seven times.

Ertz rolls into the playoffs with 15+ DK points in four of his last seven games. He gets a Bucs defense that ranks 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs, surrendering the fifth most catches and second most yards to the position.

Also consider:

• Sam Darnold ($6,500) + Justin Jefferson ($8,100) + Jordan Addison ($6,100)

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley, Eagles ($8,500)

The RBs on this slate combined for 16 games of 30+ DraftKings points this season.

Barkley accounted for six of those (with 29.7 points in another game). 

His ceiling is even more powerful on a short slate.

And with QB Jalen Hurts (concussion, finger) and WR A.J. Brown (knee) working through injuries, we could see an even bigger lean than usual on Barkley this weekend.

Joe Mixon, Texans ($7,200)

This is mostly an ownership play: I expect Mixon to be least popular among the six RBs priced at $7,000+.

He’s flashed plenty of upside this season, though. Mixon accounted for two of those 30+ points games and reached 24 DK points six times.

Injury-depleted at WR, the Texans should lean on Mixon this weekend – especially in this matchup. The Chargers finished the regular season sixth in pass defense DVOA but 17th against the run. They allowed 4.6 yards per carry to RBs.

Austin Ekeler, Commanders ($4,800)

If you’re looking to go cheap at RB – or maybe even your flex spot – give Ekeler a look.

As I wrote above, this sets up as a pass-leaning game for the Commanders, which would favor Ekeler. He easily led the backfield in routes per game (18) and targets per game (3.4) this season.

Ekeler returned from a four-game absence last week and led Washington RBs in snaps (35), routes (17), and targets (2).

The Bucs allowed the sixth most catches to RBs this season.

Also consider:

• Derrick Henry, Ravens ($8,200)
• Bucky Irving, Buccaneers ($7,000)
• Aaron Jones, Vikings ($6,000)

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua, Rams ($7,600)

Nacua checks in as the top dollars-per-point value at WR. He’s our top projected WR but sits just fourth at the position in DraftKings salary.

Puka heads into the postseason scorching hot. He’s averaged 11.1 targets, 8.4 catches, and 105 yards over his last eight games.

He gets a Vikings defense that’s been suscpetible to WRs all season, ranking dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position.

Ladd McConkey, Chargers ($6,800)

McConkey turned in an awesome rookie season, posting an 82-1,149-7 line in 16 games and ranking 20th among WRs in PPR points per game.

He gets a great individual matchup this weekend against Texans primarily slot defender Eric Murray. He’s allowed 0.44 fantasy points per route covered this season – second worst among DBs playing this weekend.

Jordan Addison, Vikings ($6,100)

Justin Jefferson ($8,100) is obviously an excellent play. But the price gap between him and Addison is too large.

Jefferson averaged 5.0 more DraftKings points per game this season. But in terms of ultimate upside, both guys had two games of 30+ DK points. Addison’s 42-pointer in Week 14 was bigger than any game Jefferson turned in this year.

The Rams rank 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. They were especially vulnerable to outside receivers, ranking 31st in adjusted points allowed. Addison has run 68% of his routes from the outside this season.

Also consider:

• Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($8,100)
• Nico Collins, Texans ($7,800)
• Terry McLaurin, Commanders ($6,500)
• Jalen McMillan, Buccaneers ($5,200)
• Olamide Zaccheaus, Commanders ($4,400)

Tight Ends

Five of our top eight Flex values on this slate are TEs. It’s a good week to consider two-TE lineups.

Mark Andrews ($4,700) and Isaiah Likely ($3,200), Ravens

Both guys are candidates for playing-time and volume boosts with WR Zay Flowers out. And the Steelers rank 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs (vs. eighth against WRs).

T.J. Hockenson, Vikings ($4,200)

Hockenson is back to full playing time at this point, registering 84% route rates each of the last two weeks. Now in a must-win spot, there shouldn’t be any limitations on Hockenson on Monday night.

He gets a Rams defense that allowed the second-most catches and fourth-most yards to TEs this season.

Also consider:

• Zach Ertz, Commanders ($4,300)
• Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($3,900)

Defense/Special Teams

• Vikings ($3,000)
• Rams ($2,900)
• Broncos ($2,400)
• Steelers ($2,200)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.