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Week 17 FanDuel Tournament Picks

Week 17 DFS presents the biggest slate of the 2021 season.With no Thursday or Saturday games, we have 14 games that are available as we build our player pools this week. Bengals/Chiefs, Rams/Ravens, and Cowboys/Cardinals project as the best games to target — but also the most popular. The large slate ensures that ownership should stay under control for even the most popular plays.

Let’s ride.

QBs

Josh Allen ($8,800)

The Bills are implied for nearly 30 points, and both the Falcons and Bills rank among the top 12 teams in neutral script pace of play. There’s a chance the Bills run away with this game.But in their blowout wins this year, Allen has been the reason why.

• 43-21 win over WFT, Allen posted 37.2 FD points
• 40-0 win over MIA, Allen posted 21.0 FD points
• 38-20 win over KC, Allen posted 36.5 FD points
• 45-17 win over NYJ, Allen posted 21.9 FD points
• 31-6 win over NO, Allen posted 28.7 FD points
• 31-14 win over CAR, Allen posted 21.8 FD points

The only big win Allen posted a low score in was at Miami in Week 2 when Zack Moss and Devin Singletary absorbed the scoring.

Matthew Stafford ($7,600)

On a smaller slate, Stafford would likely see 10-20% ownership.But due to the choice of elite options like Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, and cheap plays like Trey Lance, his ownership should stay low.

Joe Burrow just exposed the Ravens defense for over 500 passing yards.Their only starting CB remaining (Anthony Averett) also got hurt last week. The Ravens are 31^st in weighted defensive DVOA – which favors recent performances.And with Tyler Huntley projected to start, the Rams figure to dominate time of possession.

Russell Wilson ($7,300)

As bad as it’s been this year for Seattle, Wilson has still posted 20+ point games 4 times. The Lions rank dead last in average depth of target allowed, and we know that Russell Wilson’s ceiling is reliant on either D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett breaking a long TD or two. This is the best matchup they’ve faced all season for deep shots.

Contrarian Plays: Tyler Huntley ($7,500) & Taysom Hill ($7,700)

RBs

David Montgomery ($7,200)

Montgomery is the only RB to command a 20%+ target share in each of his last 4 games, which has resulted in 31 targets over that 4-game stretch. The Giants defense ranks as a top 12 matchup across the board for Montgomery with the 9^th most adjusted fantasy points allowed, 6^th worst in rush defense DVOA and 11^th most receiving fantasy points allowed to RBs. Ownership will be high, but this is good chalk.

Ronald Jones ($7,000)

The Buccaneers are nearly 2-TD favorites this week against the Jets. With Mike Evans and Antonio Brown entering this game questionable, there’s a chance the Bucs rely on the run to win this game against the easiest matchup in the league in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Rojo will cede some passing-down duties to Ke’Shawn Vaughn, but Jones should secure any red zone touches and is capable of breaking a long TD as the holder of a franchise-record 98-yard TD last season.

Rashaad Penny ($6,900)

Penny also has a similar matchup this week. In potentially Russ’s last game at home in Seattle, Penny has the 4^th easiest matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed and is capable of breaking long TDs as well.

Devin Singletary ($6,000)

Singletary has secured the primary workload for the Bills offense, playing 81%, 93% and 68% of snaps the last 3 games and running 55-71% of routes. In a game where the Bills are implied for nearly 30 points, their starting RB has to be in play with the 7^th easiest RB matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Also Consider: D’Andre Swift ($7,700) & Javonte Williams ($6,100)

WRs

Stefon Diggs ($8,000)

Diggs has faced 5 straight top-10 pass defenses against the Bucs, Panthers, Saints and Patriots twice. The Falcons are the most favorable matchup Diggs has seen in weeks, ranking top 5 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. The Bills are implied for nearly 30 points, and both the Falcons and Bills rank among the top 12 teams in neutral script pace of play.

CeeDee Lamb ($7,200)

Cardinals CB Marco Wilson has been ruled out along with Robert Alford (IR).That leaves just Byron Murphy as the remaining starter for the Cardinals against the Cowboys this week. This game has the highest over/under on the main slate at 51.5. CeeDee hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 10, despite seeing multiple 10+ target games during that stretch.

DK Metcalf ($6,600)

The Seahawks offense shockingly ranks 2^nd to last in total first downs and 1^st in first downs allowed. They’ve scored less than 15 points in 4 of their last 7 games. This week presents a much better opportunity to sustain offense as the Lions rank 9^th in first downs allowed and may struggle to move the ball against the Seahawks defense with Tim Boyle at QB. Metcalf faces Ifeatu Melifonwu in coverage, who’s allowing an 80% catch rate. With Metcalf’s big-play ability, he’s always a threat to hit in GPPs.

Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,500) & Van Jefferson ($6,000)

With the Ravens down many of their starting CBs, OBJ and Jefferson are cheap access to the Rams’ 25.5 implied point total. The Rams and Matthew Stafford disappointed a lot of DFS players last week, which will make it difficult for some to trust them again, suppressing their ownership.

Punt Plays: Gabriel Davis ($5,300) & Braxton Berrios ($5,300)

TEs

Rob Gronkowski ($6,700)

Many were burned by Gronk last week, which may suppress his ownership. Antonio Brown and Mike Evans are both questionable with lower-body injuries, so even if they play, Brady may lean on Gronk. With the Bucs projected for nearly 30 implied points, it should plenty of scoring opportunities.

Cole Kmet ($5,000)

Kmet has commanded 37 targets in the last 5 games and has played nearly every single offensive snap the past 2 weeks. The Bears figure to dominate the time of possession as 6-point favorites against an anemic Giants offense.

Also consider: Mark Andrews ($8,700)

DSTs

Texans ($3,300)

Near the minimum price, the Texans face a rookie QB in Trey Lance in his second career start. This defense also provides leverage against Lance, who projects to be on of the highest owned QBs on the Week 17 slate.

Expensive option: Saints ($4,700)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.